FIM District Ferris State Event presented by Ferris State University

Qualification · Qualification 77

APEX prediction

Predicted winner

Red alliance

Predicted score

75 – 37.01

62%38%

Actual result

Winner

Red alliance

Final score

75 – 64

Prediction correct · off by 13.5 points

red allianceTotal Season APEX 181.6 ±13.3

6091Eagle 1

Season APEX 41.4Event APEX 13.69Rank 24Record 6-6-0Status establishedConfidence 97

10421Coded Dragons

Season APEX 71.2Event APEX 29.27Rank 23Record 5-7-0Status establishedConfidence 97

6005Cardinaltronics

Season APEX 69Event APEX 32.04Rank 14Record 7-5-0Status establishedConfidence 97

blue allianceTotal Season APEX 133.6 ±13.3

6122Potential Energy

Season APEX 61Event APEX 17.83Rank 22Record 5-7-0Status establishedConfidence 97

5878The Great Lakers

Season APEX 41.3Event APEX 13.89Rank 25Record 5-7-0Status establishedConfidence 97

11435St. Peter's High School RaiderBots

Season APEX 31.3Event APEX 5.29Rank 35Record 3-9-0Status establishedConfidence 97

Scouting breakdown

Alliance compatibility and predicted ranking points, built from this event's completed matches.

Red · 6091, 10421, 6005

/ 100 compat

Projected

75 pts

~1.6 RP (district)

Teams: 6091, 10421, 6005

Auto

24.7 31%

Teleop

35.6 45%

Endgame

19.0 24%

Strengths

· Strong autonomous coverage
· Well-balanced across phases

Weaknesses

· Below-average combined firepower
· Inconsistent match-to-match output

RP bonus probability

Energized: 34%

Supercharged: 3%

Traversal: 2%

Blue · 6122, 5878, 11435

/ 100 compat

Projected

37 pts

~1.2 RP (district)

Teams: 6122, 5878, 11435

Auto

18.1 44%

Teleop

18.6 45%

Endgame

4.9 12%

Strengths

· Strong autonomous coverage

Weaknesses

· Thin endgame coverage
· Below-average combined firepower
· Inconsistent match-to-match output

RP bonus probability

Energized: 34%

Supercharged: 3%

Traversal: 2%

Predicted ranking points (district)Red 1.62 · Blue 1.19

Formula

RP = 2·P(win) + tie·P(tie) + Σ P(bonus)

Inputs

Rule setDistrict

Red projected score75pts

Blue projected score37pts

Red win probability62%

Event bonus sample194alliance-matches

Adjustments

Energized bonusred 34%, blue 35%

Supercharged bonusred 3%, blue 4%

Traversal bonusred 2%, blue 2%

District qualification: 2 RP win, 1 RP each bonus. Awards also feed district points.
Team bonus rates shrink toward the event mean (4-match prior).
Alliance bonus prob = geometric mean of team rates (all three must contribute).

Prediction detail

Predicted margin: 38
Score range: 15–97
Upset likelihood: 38%
Data cutoff: 2026-08-15
Model: apex-0.4.0

Match context

Standard match.

Combined score 139 vs event baseline 119.6.

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Red vs Blue

Alliance sums (event-scoped where available)

181.6Season APEX133.6

24.7Auto18.1

35.6Teleop18.6

19Endgame4.9

31Consistency0

Score breakdown

Official phase points (TBA)

Phase	Red	Blue
auto	27	20
teleop	33	15
endgame	15	29
foul	0	0
total	75	64

Result

Final score

75 – 64

Prediction correct · off by 13.5 pts

Score check across official sources:

agree

Match videos

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