FIM District Ferris State Event presented by Ferris State University

Qualification · Qualification 76

APEX prediction

Predicted winner

Red alliance

Predicted score

207.97 – 54.28

87%13%

Actual result

Winner

Red alliance

Final score

283 – 83

Prediction correct · off by 51.9 points

red allianceTotal Season APEX 314.3 ±11.6

1718The Fighting Pi

Season APEX 114.8Event APEX 62.58Rank 2Record 11-1-0Status establishedConfidence 100

4004M.A.R.S. Rovers

Season APEX 97.6Event APEX 75.29Rank 8Record 8-4-0Status establishedConfidence 97

6077Wiking Kujon

Season APEX 101.9Event APEX 70.1Rank 20Record 5-7-0Status establishedConfidence 97

blue allianceTotal Season APEX 157.5 ±12.8

3618Petoskey Paladins

Season APEX 92.6Event APEX 51.6Rank 6Record 10-2-0Status establishedConfidence 100

6098bIrobot

Season APEX 34.9Event APEX 0.49Rank 34Record 4-8-0Status establishedConfidence 97

9721Red Hawk Robotics

Season APEX 30Event APEX 2.19Rank 41Record 3-9-0Status establishedConfidence 97

Scouting breakdown

Alliance compatibility and predicted ranking points, built from this event's completed matches.

Red · 1718, 4004, 6077

/ 100 compat

Projected

208 pts

~2.3 RP (district)

Teams: 1718, 4004, 6077

Auto

36.2 18%

Teleop

111.8 55%

Endgame

54.4 27%

Strengths

· Well-balanced across phases
· Elite combined APEX

Weaknesses

· Inconsistent match-to-match output

RP bonus probability

Energized: 51%

Supercharged: 3%

Traversal: 2%

Blue · 3618, 6098, 9721

/ 100 compat

Projected

54.3 pts

~0.6 RP (district)

Teams: 3618, 6098, 9721

Auto

10.3 20%

Teleop

19.7 39%

Endgame

20.5 41%

Strengths

· Reliable endgame stack

Weaknesses

· Below-average combined firepower
· Inconsistent match-to-match output

RP bonus probability

Energized: 51%

Supercharged: 3%

Traversal: 2%

Predicted ranking points (district)Red 2.3 · Blue 0.55

Formula

RP = 2·P(win) + tie·P(tie) + Σ P(bonus)

Inputs

Rule setDistrict

Red projected score208pts

Blue projected score54.3pts

Red win probability87%

Event bonus sample194alliance-matches

Adjustments

Energized bonusred 51%, blue 25%

Supercharged bonusred 3%, blue 2%

Traversal bonusred 2%, blue 2%

District qualification: 2 RP win, 1 RP each bonus. Awards also feed district points.
Team bonus rates shrink toward the event mean (4-match prior).
Alliance bonus prob = geometric mean of team rates (all three must contribute).

Prediction detail

Predicted margin: 153.7
Score range: 33–229
Upset likelihood: 13%
Data cutoff: 2026-08-15
Model: apex-0.4.0

Match context

High scoring

Combined score 366 vs event baseline 118.8.

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Red vs Blue

Alliance sums (event-scoped where available)

314.3Season APEX157.5

36.2Auto10.3

111.8Teleop19.7

54.4Endgame20.5

28Consistency62

Score breakdown

Official phase points (TBA)

Phase	Red	Blue
auto	33	19
teleop	184	41
endgame	66	23
foul	0	0
total	283	83

Result

Final score

283 – 83

Prediction correct · off by 51.9 pts

Score check across official sources:

agree

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