FIM District Ferris State Event presented by Ferris State University

Qualification · Qualification 74

APEX prediction

Predicted winner

Blue alliance

Predicted score

150.35 – 168.92

44%56%

Actual result

Winner

Blue alliance

Final score

169 – 175

Prediction correct · off by 12.4 points

red allianceTotal Season APEX 231.1 ±12.2

288The RoboDawgs

Season APEX 127.3Event APEX 94.88Rank 4Record 10-2-0Status establishedConfidence 100

7109Clare Chaos Theory

Season APEX 58.8Event APEX 36.15Rank 15Record 6-6-0Status establishedConfidence 97

6642Stingers of Steel

Season APEX 45Event APEX 19.32Rank 29Record 4-8-0Status establishedConfidence 97

blue allianceTotal Season APEX 344.7 ±12.4

7810Eagle Robotics

Season APEX 47Event APEX 19.71Rank 32Record 4-8-0Status establishedConfidence 97

7160Ludington O-Bots

Season APEX 247.2Event APEX 113.02Rank 3Record 10-2-0Status establishedConfidence 100

9176Greenspire Steel Sturgeons

Season APEX 50.5Event APEX 36.19Rank 21Record 6-6-0Status establishedConfidence 97

Scouting breakdown

Alliance compatibility and predicted ranking points, built from this event's completed matches.

Red · 288, 7109, 6642

/ 100 compat

Projected

150.4 pts

~1.4 RP (district)

Teams: 288, 7109, 6642

Auto

26.6 17%

Teleop

97.3 62%

Endgame

33.1 21%

Strengths

–

Weaknesses

· Inconsistent match-to-match output

RP bonus probability

Energized: 48%

Supercharged: 2%

Traversal: 2%

Blue · 7810, 7160, 9176

/ 100 compat

Projected

168.9 pts

~1.6 RP (district)

Teams: 7810, 7160, 9176

Auto

30.8 20%

Teleop

86.9 57%

Endgame

36.0 23%

Strengths

· 7160 anchors offense
· Well-balanced across phases
· Elite combined APEX

Weaknesses

· Inconsistent match-to-match output

RP bonus probability

Energized: 48%

Supercharged: 2%

Traversal: 2%

Predicted ranking points (district)Red 1.41 · Blue 1.57

Formula

RP = 2·P(win) + tie·P(tie) + Σ P(bonus)

Inputs

Rule setDistrict

Red projected score150.4pts

Blue projected score168.9pts

Red win probability44%

Event bonus sample194alliance-matches

Adjustments

Energized bonusred 48%, blue 40%

Supercharged bonusred 2%, blue 3%

Traversal bonusred 2%, blue 2%

District qualification: 2 RP win, 1 RP each bonus. Awards also feed district points.
Team bonus rates shrink toward the event mean (4-match prior).
Alliance bonus prob = geometric mean of team rates (all three must contribute).

Prediction detail

Predicted margin: -18.6
Score range: 129–190
Upset likelihood: 44%
Data cutoff: 2026-08-15
Model: apex-0.4.0

Match context

Close match

High scoring

Combined score 344 vs event baseline 117.2.

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Red vs Blue

Alliance sums (event-scoped where available)

231.1Season APEX344.7

26.6Auto30.8

97.3Teleop86.9

33.1Endgame36

36Consistency49

Score breakdown

Official phase points (TBA)

Phase	Red	Blue
auto	24	34
teleop	85	87
endgame	60	49
foul	0	5
total	169	175

Result

Final score

169 – 175

Prediction correct · off by 12.4 pts

Score check across official sources:

agree

Match videos

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