FIM District Ferris State Event presented by Ferris State University

Qualification · Qualification 73

APEX prediction

Predicted winner

Blue alliance

Predicted score

48.78 – 118.47

30%70%

Actual result

Winner

Blue alliance

Final score

83 – 102

Prediction correct · off by 25.3 points

red allianceTotal Season APEX 158.7 ±13.3

8286E.A.G.L.E.S. Robotics

Season APEX 46.6Event APEX 9.23Rank 40Record 3-9-0Status establishedConfidence 97

8611Cyber Patriots

Season APEX 65.3Event APEX 32.12Rank 16Record 6-6-0Status establishedConfidence 97

5162The Big Red Theory

Season APEX 46.8Event APEX 7.43Rank 19Record 6-6-0Status establishedConfidence 97

blue allianceTotal Season APEX 212.3 ±12.1

10421Coded Dragons

Season APEX 71.2Event APEX 30.1Rank 23Record 5-7-0Status establishedConfidence 97

9673Volt Vespids

Season APEX 72.2Event APEX 48.71Rank 13Record 7-5-0Status establishedConfidence 97

6100MS Mobots

Season APEX 68.9Event APEX 39.66Rank 18Record 6-6-0Status establishedConfidence 97

Scouting breakdown

Alliance compatibility and predicted ranking points, built from this event's completed matches.

Red · 8286, 8611, 5162

/ 100 compat

Projected

48.8 pts

~1.0 RP (district)

Teams: 8286, 8611, 5162

Auto

18.2 33%

Teleop

28.0 51%

Endgame

8.5 16%

Strengths

· Strong autonomous coverage

Weaknesses

· Below-average combined firepower
· Inconsistent match-to-match output

RP bonus probability

Energized: 33%

Supercharged: 2%

Traversal: 2%

Blue · 10421, 9673, 6100

/ 100 compat

Projected

118.5 pts

~1.8 RP (district)

Teams: 10421, 9673, 6100

Auto

23.8 19%

Teleop

62.4 50%

Endgame

39.5 31%

Strengths

· Reliable endgame stack
· Well-balanced across phases

Weaknesses

· Inconsistent match-to-match output

RP bonus probability

Energized: 33%

Supercharged: 2%

Traversal: 2%

Predicted ranking points (district)Red 0.96 · Blue 1.82

Formula

RP = 2·P(win) + tie·P(tie) + Σ P(bonus)

Inputs

Rule setDistrict

Red projected score48.8pts

Blue projected score118.5pts

Red win probability30%

Event bonus sample194alliance-matches

Adjustments

Energized bonusred 33%, blue 35%

Supercharged bonusred 2%, blue 4%

Traversal bonusred 2%, blue 2%

District qualification: 2 RP win, 1 RP each bonus. Awards also feed district points.
Team bonus rates shrink toward the event mean (4-match prior).
Alliance bonus prob = geometric mean of team rates (all three must contribute).

Prediction detail

Predicted margin: -69.7
Score range: 28–139
Upset likelihood: 30%
Data cutoff: 2026-08-15
Model: apex-0.4.0

Match context

Standard match.

Combined score 185 vs event baseline 117.5.

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Red vs Blue

Alliance sums (event-scoped where available)

158.7Season APEX212.3

18.2Auto23.8

28Teleop62.4

8.5Endgame39.5

37Consistency0

Score breakdown

Official phase points (TBA)

Phase	Red	Blue
auto	17	27
teleop	39	42
endgame	27	18
foul	0	15
total	83	102

Result

Final score

83 – 102

Prediction correct · off by 25.3 pts

Score check across official sources:

agree

Match videos

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