FIM District Ferris State Event presented by Ferris State University

Qualification · Qualification 72

APEX prediction

Predicted winner

Blue alliance

Predicted score

77.51 – 90.06

46%54%

Actual result

Winner

Red alliance

Final score

71 – 61

Prediction missed · off by 17.8 points

red allianceTotal Season APEX 161.5 ±12.8

5182Chieftainators

Season APEX 22.5Event APEX 9.15Rank 31Record 5-7-0Status establishedConfidence 97

3618Petoskey Paladins

Season APEX 92.6Event APEX 51.36Rank 6Record 10-2-0Status establishedConfidence 100

5247Red Devil Robotics

Season APEX 46.4Event APEX 17Rank 27Record 6-6-0Status establishedConfidence 97

blue allianceTotal Season APEX 167.2 ±12.8

5878The Great Lakers

Season APEX 41.3Event APEX 16.47Rank 25Record 5-7-0Status establishedConfidence 97

9721Red Hawk Robotics

Season APEX 30Event APEX 5.39Rank 41Record 3-9-0Status establishedConfidence 97

5982Merrill's Circuits of Destruction

Season APEX 95.9Event APEX 68.2Rank 7Record 8-4-0Status establishedConfidence 100

Scouting breakdown

Alliance compatibility and predicted ranking points, built from this event's completed matches.

Red · 5182, 3618, 5247

/ 100 compat

Projected

77.5 pts

~1.3 RP (district)

Teams: 5182, 3618, 5247

Auto

23.4 33%

Teleop

35.1 50%

Endgame

12.1 17%

Strengths

· Strong autonomous coverage

Weaknesses

· Below-average combined firepower
· Inconsistent match-to-match output

RP bonus probability

Energized: 28%

Supercharged: 2%

Traversal: 2%

Blue · 5878, 9721, 5982

/ 100 compat

Projected

90.1 pts

~1.4 RP (district)

Teams: 5878, 9721, 5982

Auto

13.6 15%

Teleop

51.3 58%

Endgame

23.5 27%

Strengths

–

Weaknesses

· Inconsistent match-to-match output

RP bonus probability

Energized: 28%

Supercharged: 2%

Traversal: 2%

Predicted ranking points (district)Red 1.25 · Blue 1.45

Formula

RP = 2·P(win) + tie·P(tie) + Σ P(bonus)

Inputs

Rule setDistrict

Red projected score77.5pts

Blue projected score90.1pts

Red win probability46%

Event bonus sample194alliance-matches

Adjustments

Energized bonusred 28%, blue 31%

Supercharged bonusred 2%, blue 4%

Traversal bonusred 2%, blue 2%

District qualification: 2 RP win, 1 RP each bonus. Awards also feed district points.
Team bonus rates shrink toward the event mean (4-match prior).
Alliance bonus prob = geometric mean of team rates (all three must contribute).

Prediction detail

Predicted margin: -12.5
Score range: 57–111
Upset likelihood: 46%
Data cutoff: 2026-08-15
Model: apex-0.4.0

Match context

Upset

Combined score 132 vs event baseline 118.2.

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Red vs Blue

Alliance sums (event-scoped where available)

161.5Season APEX167.2

23.4Auto13.6

35.1Teleop51.3

12.1Endgame23.5

60Consistency55

Score breakdown

Official phase points (TBA)

Phase	Red	Blue
auto	17	15
teleop	38	25
endgame	16	21
foul	0	0
total	71	61

Result

Final score

71 – 61

Prediction missed · off by 17.8 pts

Score check across official sources:

agree

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