FIM District Ferris State Event presented by Ferris State University

Qualification · Qualification 70

APEX prediction

Predicted winner

Blue alliance

Predicted score

73.62 – 93.07

44%56%

Actual result

Winner

Red alliance

Final score

165 – 137

Prediction missed · off by 67.7 points

red allianceTotal Season APEX 184.3 ±12.7

6963Blood Sweat and Gears

Season APEX 55.4Event APEX 7.93Rank 12Record 7-5-0Status establishedConfidence 97

4004M.A.R.S. Rovers

Season APEX 97.6Event APEX 67.69Rank 8Record 8-4-0Status establishedConfidence 97

11435St. Peter's High School RaiderBots

Season APEX 31.3Event APEX -2Rank 35Record 3-9-0Status establishedConfidence 97

blue allianceTotal Season APEX 197.7 ±12.1

5213St. Ignace SHIELD

Season APEX 34.8Event APEX 11.01Rank 37Record 3-9-0Status establishedConfidence 97

6122Potential Energy

Season APEX 61Event APEX 14.57Rank 22Record 5-7-0Status establishedConfidence 97

6077Wiking Kujon

Season APEX 101.9Event APEX 67.49Rank 20Record 5-7-0Status establishedConfidence 97

Scouting breakdown

Alliance compatibility and predicted ranking points, built from this event's completed matches.

Red · 6963, 4004, 11435

/ 100 compat

Projected

73.6 pts

~1.4 RP (district)

Teams: 6963, 4004, 11435

Auto

11.9 16%

Teleop

38.5 53%

Endgame

22.1 30%

Strengths

· Reliable endgame stack

Weaknesses

· Below-average combined firepower
· Inconsistent match-to-match output

RP bonus probability

Energized: 44%

Supercharged: 2%

Traversal: 2%

Blue · 5213, 6122, 6077

/ 100 compat

Projected

93.1 pts

~1.5 RP (district)

Teams: 5213, 6122, 6077

Auto

21.5 23%

Teleop

50.2 53%

Endgame

23.7 25%

Strengths

· Well-balanced across phases

Weaknesses

· Inconsistent match-to-match output

RP bonus probability

Energized: 44%

Supercharged: 2%

Traversal: 2%

Predicted ranking points (district)Red 1.36 · Blue 1.51

Formula

RP = 2·P(win) + tie·P(tie) + Σ P(bonus)

Inputs

Rule setDistrict

Red projected score73.6pts

Blue projected score93.1pts

Red win probability44%

Event bonus sample194alliance-matches

Adjustments

Energized bonusred 44%, blue 34%

Supercharged bonusred 2%, blue 3%

Traversal bonusred 2%, blue 2%

District qualification: 2 RP win, 1 RP each bonus. Awards also feed district points.
Team bonus rates shrink toward the event mean (4-match prior).
Alliance bonus prob = geometric mean of team rates (all three must contribute).

Prediction detail

Predicted margin: -19.4
Score range: 53–114
Upset likelihood: 44%
Data cutoff: 2026-08-15
Model: apex-0.4.0

Match context

Upset

High scoring

Combined score 302 vs event baseline 117.9.

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Red vs Blue

Alliance sums (event-scoped where available)

184.3Season APEX197.7

11.9Auto21.5

38.5Teleop50.2

22.1Endgame23.7

8Consistency63

Score breakdown

Official phase points (TBA)

Phase	Red	Blue
auto	20	29
teleop	76	55
endgame	54	53
foul	15	0
total	165	137

Result

Final score

165 – 137

Prediction missed · off by 67.7 pts

Score check across official sources:

agree

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