FIM District Ferris State Event presented by Ferris State University

Qualification · Qualification 7

APEX prediction

Predicted winner

Blue alliance

Predicted score

60.25 – 87.31

42%58%

Actual result

Winner

Blue alliance

Final score

14 – 106

Prediction correct · off by 32.5 points

Limited current-season data (6 matches), wider uncertainty, lower confidence.

red allianceTotal Season APEX 131.9 ±13.9

5525Alcona Tool Cats

Season APEX 50.2Event APEX -Rank 26Record 5-7-0Status establishedConfidence 97

6098bIrobot

Season APEX 34.9Event APEX -Rank 34Record 4-8-0Status establishedConfidence 97

5162The Big Red Theory

Season APEX 46.8Event APEX -Rank 19Record 6-6-0Status establishedConfidence 97

blue allianceTotal Season APEX 215 ±12.8

5247Red Devil Robotics

Season APEX 46.4Event APEX -Rank 27Record 6-6-0Status establishedConfidence 97

5878The Great Lakers

Season APEX 41.3Event APEX -Rank 25Record 5-7-0Status establishedConfidence 97

288The RoboDawgs

Season APEX 127.3Event APEX 47.14Rank 4Record 10-2-0Status establishedConfidence 100

Scouting breakdown

Alliance compatibility and predicted ranking points, built from this event's completed matches.

Red · 5525, 6098, 5162

/ 100 compat

Projected

60.3 pts

~1.2 RP (district)

Teams: 5525, 6098, 5162

Auto

18.1 30%

Teleop

30.1 50%

Endgame

12.1 20%

Strengths

· Well-balanced across phases

Weaknesses

· Below-average combined firepower

RP bonus probability

Energized: 35%

Supercharged: 2%

Traversal: 2%

Blue · 5247, 5878, 288

/ 100 compat

Projected

87.3 pts

~1.6 RP (district)

Teams: 5247, 5878, 288

Auto

22.3 26%

Teleop

48.1 55%

Endgame

16.9 19%

Strengths

· Well-balanced across phases

Weaknesses

· Below-average combined firepower

RP bonus probability

Energized: 35%

Supercharged: 2%

Traversal: 2%

Predicted ranking points (district)Red 1.23 · Blue 1.57

Formula

RP = 2·P(win) + tie·P(tie) + Σ P(bonus)

Inputs

Rule setDistrict

Red projected score60.3pts

Blue projected score87.3pts

Red win probability42%

Event bonus sample194alliance-matches

Adjustments

Energized bonusred 35%, blue 35%

Supercharged bonusred 2%, blue 3%

Traversal bonusred 2%, blue 2%

District qualification: 2 RP win, 1 RP each bonus. Awards also feed district points.
Team bonus rates shrink toward the event mean (4-match prior).
Alliance bonus prob = geometric mean of team rates (all three must contribute).

Prediction detail

Predicted margin: -27.1
Score range: 38–109
Upset likelihood: 42%
Data cutoff: 2026-08-15
Model: apex-0.4.0

Match context

Standard match.

Combined score 120 vs event baseline 120.5.

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Red vs Blue

Alliance sums (event-scoped where available)

131.9Season APEX215

-Auto10.3

-Teleop28

-Endgame8.9

-Consistency0

Score breakdown

Official phase points (TBA)

Phase	Red	Blue
auto	11	28
teleop	2	66
endgame	1	12
foul	0	0
total	14	106

Result

Final score

14 – 106

Prediction correct · off by 32.5 pts

Score check across official sources:

agree

Match videos

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