FIM District Ferris State Event presented by Ferris State University

Qualification · Qualification 69

APEX prediction

Predicted winner

Blue alliance

Predicted score

130.91 – 189.81

32%68%

Actual result

Winner

Red alliance

Final score

155 – 133

Prediction missed · off by 40.5 points

red allianceTotal Season APEX 304.4 ±12.4

7160Ludington O-Bots

Season APEX 247.2Event APEX 113.03Rank 3Record 10-2-0Status establishedConfidence 100

7203Cyber Bearcats

Season APEX 15.8Event APEX 4.87Rank 36Record 3-9-0Status establishedConfidence 97

6091Eagle 1

Season APEX 41.4Event APEX 13.01Rank 24Record 6-6-0Status establishedConfidence 97

blue allianceTotal Season APEX 357.1 ±10.5

3603Cyber Coyotes

Season APEX 181.2Event APEX 62.47Rank 9Record 8-4-0Status establishedConfidence 100

5535Bionic Bison

Season APEX 130.9Event APEX 100.57Rank 5Record 9-3-0Status establishedConfidence 100

6642Stingers of Steel

Season APEX 45Event APEX 26.77Rank 29Record 4-8-0Status establishedConfidence 97

Scouting breakdown

Alliance compatibility and predicted ranking points, built from this event's completed matches.

Red · 7160, 7203, 6091

/ 100 compat

Projected

130.9 pts

~1.1 RP (district)

Teams: 7160, 7203, 6091

Auto

26.4 21%

Teleop

70.6 55%

Endgame

31.5 25%

Strengths

· 7160 anchors offense
· Well-balanced across phases

Weaknesses

· Inconsistent match-to-match output

RP bonus probability

Energized: 40%

Supercharged: 2%

Traversal: 2%

Blue · 3603, 5535, 6642

/ 100 compat

Projected

189.8 pts

~1.9 RP (district)

Teams: 3603, 5535, 6642

Auto

35.3 21%

Teleop

97.5 58%

Endgame

35.7 21%

Strengths

· Elite combined APEX

Weaknesses

· Inconsistent match-to-match output

RP bonus probability

Energized: 40%

Supercharged: 2%

Traversal: 2%

Predicted ranking points (district)Red 1.09 · Blue 1.87

Formula

RP = 2·P(win) + tie·P(tie) + Σ P(bonus)

Inputs

Rule setDistrict

Red projected score130.9pts

Blue projected score189.8pts

Red win probability32%

Event bonus sample194alliance-matches

Adjustments

Energized bonusred 40%, blue 46%

Supercharged bonusred 2%, blue 4%

Traversal bonusred 2%, blue 2%

District qualification: 2 RP win, 1 RP each bonus. Awards also feed district points.
Team bonus rates shrink toward the event mean (4-match prior).
Alliance bonus prob = geometric mean of team rates (all three must contribute).

Prediction detail

Predicted margin: -58.9
Score range: 110–211
Upset likelihood: 32%
Data cutoff: 2026-08-15
Model: apex-0.4.0

Match context

Upset

High scoring

Combined score 288 vs event baseline 117.5.

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Red vs Blue

Alliance sums (event-scoped where available)

304.4Season APEX357.1

26.4Auto35.3

70.6Teleop97.5

31.5Endgame35.7

87Consistency35

Score breakdown

Official phase points (TBA)

Phase	Red	Blue
auto	30	44
teleop	84	79
endgame	41	10
foul	0	0
total	155	133

Result

Final score

155 – 133

Prediction missed · off by 40.5 pts

Score check across official sources:

agree

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