FIM District Ferris State Event presented by Ferris State University

Qualification · Qualification 67

APEX prediction

Predicted winner

Blue alliance

Predicted score

24.24 – 99.01

28%72%

Actual result

Winner

Blue alliance

Final score

62 – 88

Prediction correct · off by 24.4 points

red allianceTotal Season APEX 153.2 ±13.9

7794Eagle Engineers

Season APEX 61.9Event APEX 28.64Rank 17Record 6-6-0Status establishedConfidence 97

9736Tawas Braves

Season APEX 56.4Event APEX 4.26Rank 33Record 4-8-0Status establishedConfidence 97

6098bIrobot

Season APEX 34.9Event APEX -8.66Rank 34Record 4-8-0Status establishedConfidence 97

blue allianceTotal Season APEX 192.7 ±12.8

1718The Fighting Pi

Season APEX 114.8Event APEX 64.75Rank 2Record 11-1-0Status establishedConfidence 100

5704Weird & Wired

Season APEX 30.9Event APEX 10.15Rank 28Record 6-6-0Status establishedConfidence 97

7810Eagle Robotics

Season APEX 47Event APEX 24.11Rank 32Record 4-8-0Status establishedConfidence 97

Scouting breakdown

Alliance compatibility and predicted ranking points, built from this event's completed matches.

Red · 7794, 9736, 6098

/ 100 compat

Projected

24.2 pts

~0.9 RP (district)

Teams: 7794, 9736, 6098

Auto

18.9 90%

Teleop

-6.1 0%

Endgame

8.1 39%

Strengths

· Strong autonomous coverage
· Reliable endgame stack

Weaknesses

· Below-average combined firepower
· Inconsistent match-to-match output

RP bonus probability

Energized: 33%

Supercharged: 3%

Traversal: 2%

Blue · 1718, 5704, 7810

/ 100 compat

Projected

99 pts

~1.8 RP (district)

Teams: 1718, 5704, 7810

Auto

22.3 23%

Teleop

47.6 50%

Endgame

26.1 27%

Strengths

· Well-balanced across phases

Weaknesses

· Inconsistent match-to-match output

RP bonus probability

Energized: 33%

Supercharged: 3%

Traversal: 2%

Predicted ranking points (district)Red 0.95 · Blue 1.82

Formula

RP = 2·P(win) + tie·P(tie) + Σ P(bonus)

Inputs

Rule setDistrict

Red projected score24.2pts

Blue projected score99pts

Red win probability28%

Event bonus sample194alliance-matches

Adjustments

Energized bonusred 33%, blue 33%

Supercharged bonusred 3%, blue 4%

Traversal bonusred 2%, blue 2%

District qualification: 2 RP win, 1 RP each bonus. Awards also feed district points.
Team bonus rates shrink toward the event mean (4-match prior).
Alliance bonus prob = geometric mean of team rates (all three must contribute).

Prediction detail

Predicted margin: -74.8
Score range: 3–120
Upset likelihood: 28%
Data cutoff: 2026-08-15
Model: apex-0.4.0

Match context

Standard match.

Combined score 150 vs event baseline 118.2.

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Red vs Blue

Alliance sums (event-scoped where available)

153.2Season APEX192.7

18.9Auto22.3

-6.1Teleop47.6

8.1Endgame26.1

42Consistency33

Score breakdown

Official phase points (TBA)

Phase	Red	Blue
auto	21	24
teleop	29	36
endgame	12	23
foul	0	5
total	62	88

Result

Final score

62 – 88

Prediction correct · off by 24.4 pts

Score check across official sources:

agree

Match videos

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