FIM District Ferris State Event presented by Ferris State University

Qualification · Qualification 65

APEX prediction

Predicted winner

Blue alliance

Predicted score

66.63 – 119.99

34%66%

Actual result

Winner

Red alliance

Final score

150 – 145

Prediction missed · off by 54.2 points

red allianceTotal Season APEX 188.5 ±13.3

6077Wiking Kujon

Season APEX 101.9Event APEX 61.02Rank 20Record 5-7-0Status establishedConfidence 97

5162The Big Red Theory

Season APEX 46.8Event APEX -0.13Rank 19Record 6-6-0Status establishedConfidence 97

5183Devil Bots

Season APEX 39.8Event APEX 5.74Rank 30Record 4-8-0Status establishedConfidence 97

blue allianceTotal Season APEX 231.2 ±12.8

6005Cardinaltronics

Season APEX 69Event APEX 27.86Rank 14Record 7-5-0Status establishedConfidence 97

11435St. Peter's High School RaiderBots

Season APEX 31.3Event APEX -6.53Rank 35Record 3-9-0Status establishedConfidence 97

5535Bionic Bison

Season APEX 130.9Event APEX 98.66Rank 5Record 9-3-0Status establishedConfidence 100

Scouting breakdown

Alliance compatibility and predicted ranking points, built from this event's completed matches.

Red · 6077, 5162, 5183

/ 100 compat

Projected

66.6 pts

~1.2 RP (district)

Teams: 6077, 5162, 5183

Auto

15.2 22%

Teleop

27.7 39%

Endgame

27.3 39%

Strengths

· Reliable endgame stack

Weaknesses

· Below-average combined firepower
· Inconsistent match-to-match output

RP bonus probability

Energized: 45%

Supercharged: 2%

Traversal: 2%

Blue · 6005, 11435, 5535

/ 100 compat

Projected

120 pts

~1.8 RP (district)

Teams: 6005, 11435, 5535

Auto

25.0 25%

Teleop

65.8 65%

Endgame

10.0 10%

Strengths

–

Weaknesses

· Thin endgame coverage
· Inconsistent match-to-match output

RP bonus probability

Energized: 45%

Supercharged: 2%

Traversal: 2%

Predicted ranking points (district)Red 1.17 · Blue 1.8

Formula

RP = 2·P(win) + tie·P(tie) + Σ P(bonus)

Inputs

Rule setDistrict

Red projected score66.6pts

Blue projected score120pts

Red win probability34%

Event bonus sample194alliance-matches

Adjustments

Energized bonusred 45%, blue 43%

Supercharged bonusred 2%, blue 3%

Traversal bonusred 2%, blue 2%

District qualification: 2 RP win, 1 RP each bonus. Awards also feed district points.
Team bonus rates shrink toward the event mean (4-match prior).
Alliance bonus prob = geometric mean of team rates (all three must contribute).

Prediction detail

Predicted margin: -53.4
Score range: 46–141
Upset likelihood: 34%
Data cutoff: 2026-08-15
Model: apex-0.4.0

Match context

Upset

Close match

High scoring

Combined score 295 vs event baseline 116.2.

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Red vs Blue

Alliance sums (event-scoped where available)

188.5Season APEX231.2

15.2Auto25

27.7Teleop65.8

27.3Endgame10

7Consistency0

Score breakdown

Official phase points (TBA)

Phase	Red	Blue
auto	29	26
teleop	87	67
endgame	34	52
foul	0	0
total	150	145

Result

Final score

150 – 145

Prediction missed · off by 54.2 pts

Score check across official sources:

agree

Match videos

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