FIM District Ferris State Event presented by Ferris State University

Qualification · Qualification 63

APEX prediction

Predicted winner

Blue alliance

Predicted score

11.1 – 50.97

38%62%

Actual result

Winner

Blue alliance

Final score

20 – 48

Prediction correct · off by 5.9 points

red allianceTotal Season APEX 100 ±13.3

7203Cyber Bearcats

Season APEX 15.8Event APEX 3.47Rank 36Record 3-9-0Status establishedConfidence 97

8286E.A.G.L.E.S. Robotics

Season APEX 46.6Event APEX 10.53Rank 40Record 3-9-0Status establishedConfidence 97

9731All Saints Range Precision

Season APEX 37.6Event APEX -2.9Rank 38Record 3-9-0Status establishedConfidence 97

blue allianceTotal Season APEX 162.2 ±12.7

6122Potential Energy

Season APEX 61Event APEX 12.81Rank 22Record 5-7-0Status establishedConfidence 97

9721Red Hawk Robotics

Season APEX 30Event APEX 9.2Rank 41Record 3-9-0Status establishedConfidence 97

10421Coded Dragons

Season APEX 71.2Event APEX 28.96Rank 23Record 5-7-0Status establishedConfidence 97

Scouting breakdown

Alliance compatibility and predicted ranking points, built from this event's completed matches.

Red · 7203, 8286, 9731

/ 100 compat

Projected

11.1 pts

~1.1 RP (district)

Teams: 7203, 8286, 9731

Auto

7.1 38%

Teleop

8.3 44%

Endgame

3.3 18%

Strengths

· Strong autonomous coverage

Weaknesses

· Below-average combined firepower
· Inconsistent match-to-match output

RP bonus probability

Energized: 25%

Supercharged: 2%

Traversal: 2%

Blue · 6122, 9721, 10421

/ 100 compat

Projected

51 pts

~1.6 RP (district)

Teams: 6122, 9721, 10421

Auto

15.6 27%

Teleop

26.9 47%

Endgame

14.5 25%

Strengths

· Well-balanced across phases

Weaknesses

· Below-average combined firepower
· Inconsistent match-to-match output

RP bonus probability

Energized: 25%

Supercharged: 2%

Traversal: 2%

Predicted ranking points (district)Red 1.05 · Blue 1.57

Formula

RP = 2·P(win) + tie·P(tie) + Σ P(bonus)

Inputs

Rule setDistrict

Red projected score11.1pts

Blue projected score51pts

Red win probability38%

Event bonus sample194alliance-matches

Adjustments

Energized bonusred 25%, blue 27%

Supercharged bonusred 2%, blue 4%

Traversal bonusred 2%, blue 2%

District qualification: 2 RP win, 1 RP each bonus. Awards also feed district points.
Team bonus rates shrink toward the event mean (4-match prior).
Alliance bonus prob = geometric mean of team rates (all three must contribute).

Prediction detail

Predicted margin: -39.9
Score range: -10–72
Upset likelihood: 38%
Data cutoff: 2026-08-15
Model: apex-0.4.0

Match context

Standard match.

Combined score 68 vs event baseline 117.8.

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Red vs Blue

Alliance sums (event-scoped where available)

100Season APEX162.2

7.1Auto15.6

8.3Teleop26.9

3.3Endgame14.5

77Consistency53

Score breakdown

Official phase points (TBA)

Phase	Red	Blue
auto	7	18
teleop	10	17
endgame	3	13
foul	0	0
total	20	48

Result

Final score

20 – 48

Prediction correct · off by 5.9 pts

Score check across official sources:

agree

Match videos

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