FIM District Ferris State Event presented by Ferris State University

Qualification · Qualification 62

APEX prediction

Predicted winner

Red alliance

Predicted score

203.78 – 83.98

82%18%

Actual result

Winner

Red alliance

Final score

199 – 46

Prediction correct · off by 21.4 points

red allianceTotal Season APEX 395 ±11.7

5525Alcona Tool Cats

Season APEX 50.2Event APEX 20.83Rank 26Record 5-7-0Status establishedConfidence 97

7160Ludington O-Bots

Season APEX 247.2Event APEX 112.96Rank 3Record 10-2-0Status establishedConfidence 100

4004M.A.R.S. Rovers

Season APEX 97.6Event APEX 69.99Rank 8Record 8-4-0Status establishedConfidence 97

blue allianceTotal Season APEX 237.8 ±12.4

6091Eagle 1

Season APEX 41.4Event APEX 18.35Rank 24Record 6-6-0Status establishedConfidence 97

9771FPRO

Season APEX 146.8Event APEX 44.19Rank 11Record 7-5-0Status establishedConfidence 100

7911Scrap Cat Robotics Team Puma

Season APEX 49.6Event APEX 21.44Rank 39Record 3-9-0Status establishedConfidence 97

Scouting breakdown

Alliance compatibility and predicted ranking points, built from this event's completed matches.

Red · 5525, 7160, 4004

/ 100 compat

Projected

203.8 pts

~2.2 RP (district)

Teams: 5525, 7160, 4004

Auto

31.4 15%

Teleop

134.4 65%

Endgame

42.1 20%

Strengths

· 7160 anchors offense
· Elite combined APEX

Weaknesses

· Inconsistent match-to-match output

RP bonus probability

Energized: 51%

Supercharged: 2%

Traversal: 2%

Blue · 6091, 9771, 7911

/ 100 compat

Projected

84 pts

~0.7 RP (district)

Teams: 6091, 9771, 7911

Auto

10.3 18%

Teleop

35.8 63%

Endgame

10.4 18%

Strengths

–

Weaknesses

· Below-average combined firepower
· Inconsistent match-to-match output

RP bonus probability

Energized: 51%

Supercharged: 2%

Traversal: 2%

Predicted ranking points (district)Red 2.18 · Blue 0.73

Formula

RP = 2·P(win) + tie·P(tie) + Σ P(bonus)

Inputs

Rule setDistrict

Red projected score203.8pts

Blue projected score84pts

Red win probability82%

Event bonus sample194alliance-matches

Adjustments

Energized bonusred 51%, blue 32%

Supercharged bonusred 2%, blue 2%

Traversal bonusred 2%, blue 2%

District qualification: 2 RP win, 1 RP each bonus. Awards also feed district points.
Team bonus rates shrink toward the event mean (4-match prior).
Alliance bonus prob = geometric mean of team rates (all three must contribute).

Prediction detail

Predicted margin: 119.8
Score range: 63–225
Upset likelihood: 18%
Data cutoff: 2026-08-15
Model: apex-0.4.0

Match context

Standard match.

Combined score 245 vs event baseline 117.7.

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Red vs Blue

Alliance sums (event-scoped where available)

395Season APEX237.8

31.4Auto10.3

134.4Teleop35.8

42.1Endgame10.4

92Consistency77

Score breakdown

Official phase points (TBA)

Phase	Red	Blue
auto	41	33
teleop	114	9
endgame	44	4
foul	0	0
total	199	46

Result

Final score

199 – 46

Prediction correct · off by 21.4 pts

Score check across official sources:

agree

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