FIM District Ferris State Event presented by Ferris State University

Qualification · Qualification 60

APEX prediction

Predicted winner

Blue alliance

Predicted score

19.45 – 151.68

16%84%

Actual result

Winner

Blue alliance

Final score

26 – 164

Prediction correct · off by 9.4 points

red allianceTotal Season APEX 131 ±13.3

5213St. Ignace SHIELD

Season APEX 34.8Event APEX 7.11Rank 37Record 3-9-0Status establishedConfidence 97

9736Tawas Braves

Season APEX 56.4Event APEX 4.5Rank 33Record 4-8-0Status establishedConfidence 97

5183Devil Bots

Season APEX 39.8Event APEX 7.84Rank 30Record 4-8-0Status establishedConfidence 97

blue allianceTotal Season APEX 342.7 ±10.5

3603Cyber Coyotes

Season APEX 181.2Event APEX 59.99Rank 9Record 8-4-0Status establishedConfidence 100

3618Petoskey Paladins

Season APEX 92.6Event APEX 57.81Rank 6Record 10-2-0Status establishedConfidence 100

6100MS Mobots

Season APEX 68.9Event APEX 33.88Rank 18Record 6-6-0Status establishedConfidence 97

Scouting breakdown

Alliance compatibility and predicted ranking points, built from this event's completed matches.

Red · 5213, 9736, 5183

/ 100 compat

Projected

19.5 pts

~0.7 RP (district)

Teams: 5213, 9736, 5183

Auto

11.8 47%

Teleop

4.6 18%

Endgame

8.5 34%

Strengths

· Strong autonomous coverage
· Reliable endgame stack

Weaknesses

· Below-average combined firepower
· Inconsistent match-to-match output

RP bonus probability

Energized: 32%

Supercharged: 2%

Traversal: 2%

Blue · 3603, 3618, 6100

/ 100 compat

Projected

151.7 pts

~2.1 RP (district)

Teams: 3603, 3618, 6100

Auto

26.3 18%

Teleop

89.7 60%

Endgame

33.3 22%

Strengths

–

Weaknesses

· Inconsistent match-to-match output

RP bonus probability

Energized: 32%

Supercharged: 2%

Traversal: 2%

Predicted ranking points (district)Red 0.68 · Blue 2.13

Formula

RP = 2·P(win) + tie·P(tie) + Σ P(bonus)

Inputs

Rule setDistrict

Red projected score19.5pts

Blue projected score151.7pts

Red win probability16%

Event bonus sample194alliance-matches

Adjustments

Energized bonusred 32%, blue 41%

Supercharged bonusred 2%, blue 3%

Traversal bonusred 2%, blue 2%

District qualification: 2 RP win, 1 RP each bonus. Awards also feed district points.
Team bonus rates shrink toward the event mean (4-match prior).
Alliance bonus prob = geometric mean of team rates (all three must contribute).

Prediction detail

Predicted margin: -132.2
Score range: -2–173
Upset likelihood: 16%
Data cutoff: 2026-08-15
Model: apex-0.4.0

Match context

Standard match.

Combined score 190 vs event baseline 116.5.

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Red vs Blue

Alliance sums (event-scoped where available)

131Season APEX342.7

11.8Auto26.3

4.6Teleop89.7

8.5Endgame33.3

104Consistency0

Score breakdown

Official phase points (TBA)

Phase	Red	Blue
auto	11	47
teleop	10	61
endgame	5	56
foul	0	0
total	26	164

Result

Final score

26 – 164

Prediction correct · off by 9.4 pts

Score check across official sources:

agree

Match videos

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