FIM District Ferris State Event presented by Ferris State University

Qualification · Qualification 6

APEX prediction

Predicted winner

Red alliance

Predicted score

102.61 – 88.17

54%46%

Actual result

Winner

Red alliance

Final score

91 – 60

Prediction correct · off by 19.9 points

red allianceTotal Season APEX 209.9 ±12.8

5535Bionic Bison

Season APEX 130.9Event APEX 87.71Rank 5Record 9-3-0Status establishedConfidence 100

9731All Saints Range Precision

Season APEX 37.6Event APEX 2.06Rank 38Record 3-9-0Status establishedConfidence 97

6091Eagle 1

Season APEX 41.4Event APEX 12.84Rank 24Record 6-6-0Status establishedConfidence 97

blue allianceTotal Season APEX 201.2 ±12.2

8286E.A.G.L.E.S. Robotics

Season APEX 46.6Event APEX 11.71Rank 40Record 3-9-0Status establishedConfidence 97

5183Devil Bots

Season APEX 39.8Event APEX 15.92Rank 30Record 4-8-0Status establishedConfidence 97

1718The Fighting Pi

Season APEX 114.8Event APEX 60.54Rank 2Record 11-1-0Status establishedConfidence 100

Scouting breakdown

Alliance compatibility and predicted ranking points, built from this event's completed matches.

Red · 5535, 9731, 6091

/ 100 compat

Projected

102.6 pts

~1.5 RP (district)

Teams: 5535, 9731, 6091

Auto

22.7 26%

Teleop

54.2 61%

Endgame

11.8 13%

Strengths

–

Weaknesses

· Thin endgame coverage
· Inconsistent match-to-match output

RP bonus probability

Energized: 36%

Supercharged: 3%

Traversal: 2%

Blue · 8286, 5183, 1718

/ 100 compat

Projected

88.2 pts

~1.3 RP (district)

Teams: 8286, 5183, 1718

Auto

19.3 21%

Teleop

51.1 56%

Endgame

20.4 22%

Strengths

· Well-balanced across phases

Weaknesses

· Below-average combined firepower
· Inconsistent match-to-match output

RP bonus probability

Energized: 36%

Supercharged: 3%

Traversal: 2%

Predicted ranking points (district)Red 1.5 · Blue 1.29

Formula

RP = 2·P(win) + tie·P(tie) + Σ P(bonus)

Inputs

Rule setDistrict

Red projected score102.6pts

Blue projected score88.2pts

Red win probability54%

Event bonus sample194alliance-matches

Adjustments

Energized bonusred 36%, blue 33%

Supercharged bonusred 3%, blue 3%

Traversal bonusred 2%, blue 2%

District qualification: 2 RP win, 1 RP each bonus. Awards also feed district points.
Team bonus rates shrink toward the event mean (4-match prior).
Alliance bonus prob = geometric mean of team rates (all three must contribute).

Prediction detail

Predicted margin: 14.4
Score range: 65–126
Upset likelihood: 46%
Data cutoff: 2026-08-15
Model: apex-0.4.0

Match context

Standard match.

Combined score 151 vs event baseline 127.7.

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Red vs Blue

Alliance sums (event-scoped where available)

209.9Season APEX201.2

22.7Auto19.3

54.2Teleop51.1

11.8Endgame20.4

75Consistency26

Score breakdown

Official phase points (TBA)

Phase	Red	Blue
auto	17	16
teleop	48	23
endgame	11	21
foul	15	0
total	91	60

Result

Final score

91 – 60

Prediction correct · off by 19.9 pts

Score check across official sources:

agree

Match videos

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