FIM District Ferris State Event presented by Ferris State University

Qualification · Qualification 59

APEX prediction

Predicted winner

Blue alliance

Predicted score

63.09 – 114.87

34%66%

Actual result

Winner

Blue alliance

Final score

50 – 83

Prediction correct · off by 22.5 points

red allianceTotal Season APEX 135.9 ±13.3

9721Red Hawk Robotics

Season APEX 30Event APEX 15.08Rank 41Record 3-9-0Status establishedConfidence 97

6963Blood Sweat and Gears

Season APEX 55.4Event APEX 11.04Rank 12Record 7-5-0Status establishedConfidence 97

9176Greenspire Steel Sturgeons

Season APEX 50.5Event APEX 36.97Rank 21Record 6-6-0Status establishedConfidence 97

blue allianceTotal Season APEX 212.4 ±12.2

8286E.A.G.L.E.S. Robotics

Season APEX 46.6Event APEX 16.22Rank 40Record 3-9-0Status establishedConfidence 97

5535Bionic Bison

Season APEX 130.9Event APEX 99.95Rank 5Record 9-3-0Status establishedConfidence 100

6098bIrobot

Season APEX 34.9Event APEX -1.3Rank 34Record 4-8-0Status establishedConfidence 97

Scouting breakdown

Alliance compatibility and predicted ranking points, built from this event's completed matches.

Red · 9721, 6963, 9176

/ 100 compat

Projected

63.1 pts

~1.0 RP (district)

Teams: 9721, 6963, 9176

Auto

4.0 12%

Teleop

13.1 38%

Endgame

17.1 50%

Strengths

· Reliable endgame stack

Weaknesses

· Thin autonomous coverage
· Below-average combined firepower
· Inconsistent match-to-match output

RP bonus probability

Energized: 30%

Supercharged: 2%

Traversal: 2%

Blue · 8286, 5535, 6098

/ 100 compat

Projected

114.9 pts

~1.6 RP (district)

Teams: 8286, 5535, 6098

Auto

19.0 21%

Teleop

48.0 54%

Endgame

21.8 25%

Strengths

· Well-balanced across phases

Weaknesses

· Inconsistent match-to-match output

RP bonus probability

Energized: 30%

Supercharged: 2%

Traversal: 2%

Predicted ranking points (district)Red 1.03 · Blue 1.63

Formula

RP = 2·P(win) + tie·P(tie) + Σ P(bonus)

Inputs

Rule setDistrict

Red projected score63.1pts

Blue projected score114.9pts

Red win probability34%

Event bonus sample194alliance-matches

Adjustments

Energized bonusred 30%, blue 27%

Supercharged bonusred 2%, blue 3%

Traversal bonusred 2%, blue 2%

District qualification: 2 RP win, 1 RP each bonus. Awards also feed district points.
Team bonus rates shrink toward the event mean (4-match prior).
Alliance bonus prob = geometric mean of team rates (all three must contribute).

Prediction detail

Predicted margin: -51.8
Score range: 42–136
Upset likelihood: 34%
Data cutoff: 2026-08-15
Model: apex-0.4.0

Match context

Standard match.

Combined score 133 vs event baseline 117.3.

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Red vs Blue

Alliance sums (event-scoped where available)

135.9Season APEX212.4

4Auto19

13.1Teleop48

17.1Endgame21.8

51Consistency37

Score breakdown

Official phase points (TBA)

Phase	Red	Blue
auto	15	30
teleop	15	44
endgame	20	9
foul	0	0
total	50	83

Result

Final score

50 – 83

Prediction correct · off by 22.5 pts

Score check across official sources:

agree

Match videos

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