FIM District Ferris State Event presented by Ferris State University

Qualification · Qualification 58

APEX prediction

Predicted winner

Blue alliance

Predicted score

72.62 – 94.1

43%57%

Actual result

Winner

Blue alliance

Final score

143 – 145

Prediction correct · off by 60.6 points

red allianceTotal Season APEX 217 ±11.7

244RoboDawgs 3D

Season APEX 108.2Event APEX 61.19Rank 10Record 7-5-0Status establishedConfidence 100

10421Coded Dragons

Season APEX 71.2Event APEX 19.41Rank 23Record 5-7-0Status establishedConfidence 97

9731All Saints Range Precision

Season APEX 37.6Event APEX -7.98Rank 38Record 3-9-0Status establishedConfidence 97

blue allianceTotal Season APEX 185.4 ±13.3

4004M.A.R.S. Rovers

Season APEX 97.6Event APEX 68.86Rank 8Record 8-4-0Status establishedConfidence 97

6091Eagle 1

Season APEX 41.4Event APEX 13.75Rank 24Record 6-6-0Status establishedConfidence 97

5247Red Devil Robotics

Season APEX 46.4Event APEX 11.49Rank 27Record 6-6-0Status establishedConfidence 97

Scouting breakdown

Alliance compatibility and predicted ranking points, built from this event's completed matches.

Red · 244, 10421, 9731

/ 100 compat

Projected

72.6 pts

~1.3 RP (district)

Teams: 244, 10421, 9731

Auto

20.5 24%

Teleop

33.5 40%

Endgame

29.8 36%

Strengths

· Reliable endgame stack

Weaknesses

· Below-average combined firepower
· Inconsistent match-to-match output

RP bonus probability

Energized: 35%

Supercharged: 3%

Traversal: 2%

Blue · 4004, 6091, 5247

/ 100 compat

Projected

94.1 pts

~1.5 RP (district)

Teams: 4004, 6091, 5247

Auto

26.3 25%

Teleop

58.0 55%

Endgame

20.6 20%

Strengths

· Well-balanced across phases

Weaknesses

· Inconsistent match-to-match output

RP bonus probability

Energized: 35%

Supercharged: 3%

Traversal: 2%

Predicted ranking points (district)Red 1.26 · Blue 1.49

Formula

RP = 2·P(win) + tie·P(tie) + Σ P(bonus)

Inputs

Rule setDistrict

Red projected score72.6pts

Blue projected score94.1pts

Red win probability43%

Event bonus sample194alliance-matches

Adjustments

Energized bonusred 35%, blue 32%

Supercharged bonusred 3%, blue 2%

Traversal bonusred 2%, blue 2%

District qualification: 2 RP win, 1 RP each bonus. Awards also feed district points.
Team bonus rates shrink toward the event mean (4-match prior).
Alliance bonus prob = geometric mean of team rates (all three must contribute).

Prediction detail

Predicted margin: -21.5
Score range: 52–115
Upset likelihood: 43%
Data cutoff: 2026-08-15
Model: apex-0.4.0

Match context

Upset

Close match

High scoring

Combined score 288 vs event baseline 116.9.

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Red vs Blue

Alliance sums (event-scoped where available)

217Season APEX185.4

20.5Auto26.3

33.5Teleop58

29.8Endgame20.6

61Consistency74

Score breakdown

Official phase points (TBA)

Phase	Red	Blue
auto	22	32
teleop	88	48
endgame	33	20
foul	0	45
total	143	145

Result

Final score

143 – 145

Prediction correct · off by 60.6 pts

Score check across official sources:

agree

Match videos

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