FIM District Ferris State Event presented by Ferris State University

Qualification · Qualification 57

APEX prediction

Predicted winner

Blue alliance

Predicted score

24.19 – 379.27

2%98%

Actual result

Winner

Blue alliance

Final score

43 – 458

Prediction correct · off by 48.8 points

red allianceTotal Season APEX 92.1 ±13.3

6642Stingers of Steel

Season APEX 45Event APEX 27.2Rank 29Record 4-8-0Status establishedConfidence 97

11435St. Peter's High School RaiderBots

Season APEX 31.3Event APEX -6.82Rank 35Record 3-9-0Status establishedConfidence 97

7203Cyber Bearcats

Season APEX 15.8Event APEX 3.81Rank 36Record 3-9-0Status establishedConfidence 97

blue allianceTotal Season APEX 414.6 ±11

9673Volt Vespids

Season APEX 72.2Event APEX 42.99Rank 13Record 7-5-0Status establishedConfidence 97

1918Newaygo County GEARS

Season APEX 246.5Event APEX 267.6Rank 1Record 12-0-0Status establishedConfidence 100

5982Merrill's Circuits of Destruction

Season APEX 95.9Event APEX 68.68Rank 7Record 8-4-0Status establishedConfidence 100

Scouting breakdown

Alliance compatibility and predicted ranking points, built from this event's completed matches.

Red · 6642, 11435, 7203

/ 100 compat

Projected

24.2 pts

~0.5 RP (district)

Teams: 6642, 11435, 7203

Auto

4.2 18%

Teleop

2.7 11%

Endgame

17.0 71%

Strengths

· Reliable endgame stack

Weaknesses

· Below-average combined firepower
· Inconsistent match-to-match output

RP bonus probability

Energized: 37%

Supercharged: 2%

Traversal: 2%

Blue · 9673, 1918, 5982

/ 100 compat

Projected

379.3 pts

~2.6 RP (district)

Teams: 9673, 1918, 5982

Auto

75.9 20%

Teleop

228.8 61%

Endgame

73.1 19%

Strengths

· 1918 anchors offense
· Elite combined APEX

Weaknesses

· Inconsistent match-to-match output

RP bonus probability

Energized: 37%

Supercharged: 2%

Traversal: 2%

Predicted ranking points (district)Red 0.45 · Blue 2.57

Formula

RP = 2·P(win) + tie·P(tie) + Σ P(bonus)

Inputs

Rule setDistrict

Red projected score24.2pts

Blue projected score379.3pts

Red win probability2%

Event bonus sample194alliance-matches

Adjustments

Energized bonusred 37%, blue 49%

Supercharged bonusred 2%, blue 10%

Traversal bonusred 2%, blue 2%

District qualification: 2 RP win, 1 RP each bonus. Awards also feed district points.
Team bonus rates shrink toward the event mean (4-match prior).
Alliance bonus prob = geometric mean of team rates (all three must contribute).

Prediction detail

Predicted margin: -355.1
Score range: 3–400
Upset likelihood: 2%
Data cutoff: 2026-08-15
Model: apex-0.4.0

Match context

High scoring

Combined score 501 vs event baseline 114.5.

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Red vs Blue

Alliance sums (event-scoped where available)

92.1Season APEX414.6

4.2Auto75.9

2.7Teleop228.8

17Endgame73.1

33Consistency19

Score breakdown

Official phase points (TBA)

Phase	Red	Blue
auto	10	81
teleop	18	288
endgame	15	89
foul	0	0
total	43	458

Result

Final score

43 – 458

Prediction correct · off by 48.8 pts

Score check across official sources:

agree

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