FIM District Ferris State Event presented by Ferris State University

Qualification · Qualification 56

APEX prediction

Predicted winner

Red alliance

Predicted score

79.59 – 51.98

59%41%

Actual result

Winner

Red alliance

Final score

103 – 66

Prediction correct · off by 18.7 points

red allianceTotal Season APEX 235.1 ±12.4

5878The Great Lakers

Season APEX 41.3Event APEX 16.43Rank 25Record 5-7-0Status establishedConfidence 97

7810Eagle Robotics

Season APEX 47Event APEX 18.91Rank 32Record 4-8-0Status establishedConfidence 97

9771FPRO

Season APEX 146.8Event APEX 44.25Rank 11Record 7-5-0Status establishedConfidence 100

blue allianceTotal Season APEX 145.4 ±13.3

6122Potential Energy

Season APEX 61Event APEX 14.96Rank 22Record 5-7-0Status establishedConfidence 97

7794Eagle Engineers

Season APEX 61.9Event APEX 28.05Rank 17Record 6-6-0Status establishedConfidence 97

5182Chieftainators

Season APEX 22.5Event APEX 8.97Rank 31Record 5-7-0Status establishedConfidence 97

Scouting breakdown

Alliance compatibility and predicted ranking points, built from this event's completed matches.

Red · 5878, 7810, 9771

/ 100 compat

Projected

79.6 pts

~1.6 RP (district)

Teams: 5878, 7810, 9771

Auto

24.6 29%

Teleop

47.7 57%

Endgame

11.9 14%

Strengths

–

Weaknesses

· Thin endgame coverage
· Below-average combined firepower
· Inconsistent match-to-match output

RP bonus probability

Energized: 38%

Supercharged: 5%

Traversal: 2%

Blue · 6122, 7794, 5182

/ 100 compat

Projected

52 pts

~1.2 RP (district)

Teams: 6122, 7794, 5182

Auto

23.5 37%

Teleop

34.9 55%

Endgame

4.6 7%

Strengths

· Strong autonomous coverage

Weaknesses

· Thin endgame coverage
· Below-average combined firepower
· Inconsistent match-to-match output

RP bonus probability

Energized: 38%

Supercharged: 5%

Traversal: 2%

Predicted ranking points (district)Red 1.61 · Blue 1.23

Formula

RP = 2·P(win) + tie·P(tie) + Σ P(bonus)

Inputs

Rule setDistrict

Red projected score79.6pts

Blue projected score52pts

Red win probability59%

Event bonus sample194alliance-matches

Adjustments

Energized bonusred 38%, blue 34%

Supercharged bonusred 5%, blue 4%

Traversal bonusred 2%, blue 2%

District qualification: 2 RP win, 1 RP each bonus. Awards also feed district points.
Team bonus rates shrink toward the event mean (4-match prior).
Alliance bonus prob = geometric mean of team rates (all three must contribute).

Prediction detail

Predicted margin: 27.6
Score range: 31–101
Upset likelihood: 41%
Data cutoff: 2026-08-15
Model: apex-0.4.0

Match context

Standard match.

Combined score 169 vs event baseline 115.

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Red vs Blue

Alliance sums (event-scoped where available)

235.1Season APEX145.4

24.6Auto23.5

47.7Teleop34.9

11.9Endgame4.6

36Consistency26

Score breakdown

Official phase points (TBA)

Phase	Red	Blue
auto	13	21
teleop	63	23
endgame	27	7
foul	0	15
total	103	66

Result

Final score

103 – 66

Prediction correct · off by 18.7 pts

Score check across official sources:

agree

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