FIM District Ferris State Event presented by Ferris State University

Qualification · Qualification 55

APEX prediction

Predicted winner

Blue alliance

Predicted score

74.32 – 111.42

39%61%

Actual result

Winner

Blue alliance

Final score

71 – 133

Prediction correct · off by 12.4 points

red allianceTotal Season APEX 149.7 ±13.3

5213St. Ignace SHIELD

Season APEX 34.8Event APEX 10.97Rank 37Record 3-9-0Status establishedConfidence 97

7911Scrap Cat Robotics Team Puma

Season APEX 49.6Event APEX 22.68Rank 39Record 3-9-0Status establishedConfidence 97

8611Cyber Patriots

Season APEX 65.3Event APEX 40.67Rank 16Record 6-6-0Status establishedConfidence 97

blue allianceTotal Season APEX 254.2 ±11.7

3618Petoskey Paladins

Season APEX 92.6Event APEX 56.97Rank 6Record 10-2-0Status establishedConfidence 100

1718The Fighting Pi

Season APEX 114.8Event APEX 54.28Rank 2Record 11-1-0Status establishedConfidence 100

5162The Big Red Theory

Season APEX 46.8Event APEX 0.17Rank 19Record 6-6-0Status establishedConfidence 97

Scouting breakdown

Alliance compatibility and predicted ranking points, built from this event's completed matches.

Red · 5213, 7911, 8611

/ 100 compat

Projected

74.3 pts

~1.1 RP (district)

Teams: 5213, 7911, 8611

Auto

9.9 26%

Teleop

19.4 51%

Endgame

8.8 23%

Strengths

· Well-balanced across phases

Weaknesses

· Below-average combined firepower
· Inconsistent match-to-match output

RP bonus probability

Energized: 29%

Supercharged: 2%

Traversal: 2%

Blue · 3618, 1718, 5162

/ 100 compat

Projected

111.4 pts

~1.8 RP (district)

Teams: 3618, 1718, 5162

Auto

25.5 23%

Teleop

49.6 45%

Endgame

35.5 32%

Strengths

· Reliable endgame stack
· Well-balanced across phases

Weaknesses

· Inconsistent match-to-match output

RP bonus probability

Energized: 29%

Supercharged: 2%

Traversal: 2%

Predicted ranking points (district)Red 1.1 · Blue 1.77

Formula

RP = 2·P(win) + tie·P(tie) + Σ P(bonus)

Inputs

Rule setDistrict

Red projected score74.3pts

Blue projected score111.4pts

Red win probability39%

Event bonus sample194alliance-matches

Adjustments

Energized bonusred 29%, blue 49%

Supercharged bonusred 2%, blue 3%

Traversal bonusred 2%, blue 2%

District qualification: 2 RP win, 1 RP each bonus. Awards also feed district points.
Team bonus rates shrink toward the event mean (4-match prior).
Alliance bonus prob = geometric mean of team rates (all three must contribute).

Prediction detail

Predicted margin: -37.1
Score range: 53–132
Upset likelihood: 39%
Data cutoff: 2026-08-15
Model: apex-0.4.0

Match context

Standard match.

Combined score 204 vs event baseline 115.3.

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Red vs Blue

Alliance sums (event-scoped where available)

149.7Season APEX254.2

9.9Auto25.5

19.4Teleop49.6

8.8Endgame35.5

56Consistency0

Score breakdown

Official phase points (TBA)

Phase	Red	Blue
auto	17	30
teleop	39	73
endgame	15	30
foul	0	0
total	71	133

Result

Final score

71 – 133

Prediction correct · off by 12.4 pts

Score check across official sources:

agree

Match videos

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