FIM District Ferris State Event presented by Ferris State University

Qualification · Qualification 54

APEX prediction

Predicted winner

Blue alliance

Predicted score

78.51 – 106.5

41%59%

Actual result

Winner

Blue alliance

Final score

50 – 187

Prediction correct · off by 54.5 points

red allianceTotal Season APEX 131.7 ±13.9

9176Greenspire Steel Sturgeons

Season APEX 50.5Event APEX 44.78Rank 21Record 6-6-0Status establishedConfidence 97

5183Devil Bots

Season APEX 39.8Event APEX 15.71Rank 30Record 4-8-0Status establishedConfidence 97

6091Eagle 1

Season APEX 41.4Event APEX 18.02Rank 24Record 6-6-0Status establishedConfidence 97

blue allianceTotal Season APEX 225.3 ±12.7

4004M.A.R.S. Rovers

Season APEX 97.6Event APEX 58.25Rank 8Record 8-4-0Status establishedConfidence 97

6100MS Mobots

Season APEX 68.9Event APEX 24.86Rank 18Record 6-6-0Status establishedConfidence 97

7109Clare Chaos Theory

Season APEX 58.8Event APEX 23.39Rank 15Record 6-6-0Status establishedConfidence 97

Scouting breakdown

Alliance compatibility and predicted ranking points, built from this event's completed matches.

Red · 9176, 5183, 6091

/ 100 compat

Projected

78.5 pts

~1.2 RP (district)

Teams: 9176, 5183, 6091

Auto

10.1 22%

Teleop

18.2 39%

Endgame

18.1 39%

Strengths

· Reliable endgame stack

Weaknesses

· Below-average combined firepower
· Inconsistent match-to-match output

RP bonus probability

Energized: 34%

Supercharged: 2%

Traversal: 2%

Blue · 4004, 6100, 7109

/ 100 compat

Projected

106.5 pts

~1.7 RP (district)

Teams: 4004, 6100, 7109

Auto

25.6 20%

Teleop

74.3 57%

Endgame

29.7 23%

Strengths

· Well-balanced across phases

Weaknesses

· Inconsistent match-to-match output

RP bonus probability

Energized: 34%

Supercharged: 2%

Traversal: 2%

Predicted ranking points (district)Red 1.21 · Blue 1.66

Formula

RP = 2·P(win) + tie·P(tie) + Σ P(bonus)

Inputs

Rule setDistrict

Red projected score78.5pts

Blue projected score106.5pts

Red win probability41%

Event bonus sample194alliance-matches

Adjustments

Energized bonusred 34%, blue 44%

Supercharged bonusred 2%, blue 2%

Traversal bonusred 2%, blue 2%

District qualification: 2 RP win, 1 RP each bonus. Awards also feed district points.
Team bonus rates shrink toward the event mean (4-match prior).
Alliance bonus prob = geometric mean of team rates (all three must contribute).

Prediction detail

Predicted margin: -28
Score range: 58–128
Upset likelihood: 41%
Data cutoff: 2026-08-15
Model: apex-0.4.0

Match context

Standard match.

Combined score 237 vs event baseline 115.2.

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Red vs Blue

Alliance sums (event-scoped where available)

131.7Season APEX225.3

10.1Auto25.6

18.2Teleop74.3

18.1Endgame29.7

43Consistency17

Score breakdown

Official phase points (TBA)

Phase	Red	Blue
auto	14	25
teleop	27	128
endgame	9	34
foul	0	0
total	50	187

Result

Final score

50 – 187

Prediction correct · off by 54.5 pts

Score check across official sources:

agree

Match videos

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