FIM District Ferris State Event presented by Ferris State University

Qualification · Qualification 53

APEX prediction

Predicted winner

Red alliance

Predicted score

129.02 – 39.71

75%25%

Actual result

Winner

Red alliance

Final score

168 – 121

Prediction correct · off by 60.1 points

red allianceTotal Season APEX 323.5 ±11.2

5982Merrill's Circuits of Destruction

Season APEX 95.9Event APEX 63.38Rank 7Record 8-4-0Status establishedConfidence 100

5247Red Devil Robotics

Season APEX 46.4Event APEX 8.55Rank 27Record 6-6-0Status establishedConfidence 97

3603Cyber Coyotes

Season APEX 181.2Event APEX 57.09Rank 9Record 8-4-0Status establishedConfidence 100

blue allianceTotal Season APEX 179.8 ±12.7

6077Wiking Kujon

Season APEX 101.9Event APEX 45.42Rank 20Record 5-7-0Status establishedConfidence 97

11435St. Peter's High School RaiderBots

Season APEX 31.3Event APEX -15.45Rank 35Record 3-9-0Status establishedConfidence 97

8286E.A.G.L.E.S. Robotics

Season APEX 46.6Event APEX 9.74Rank 40Record 3-9-0Status establishedConfidence 97

Scouting breakdown

Alliance compatibility and predicted ranking points, built from this event's completed matches.

Red · 5982, 5247, 3603

/ 100 compat

Projected

129 pts

~1.9 RP (district)

Teams: 5982, 5247, 3603

Auto

25.7 20%

Teleop

72.9 56%

Endgame

32.3 25%

Strengths

· Well-balanced across phases

Weaknesses

· Inconsistent match-to-match output

RP bonus probability

Energized: 36%

Supercharged: 4%

Traversal: 2%

Blue · 6077, 11435, 8286

/ 100 compat

Projected

39.7 pts

~0.8 RP (district)

Teams: 6077, 11435, 8286

Auto

11.2 25%

Teleop

19.2 43%

Endgame

14.1 32%

Strengths

· Reliable endgame stack
· Well-balanced across phases

Weaknesses

· Below-average combined firepower
· Inconsistent match-to-match output

RP bonus probability

Energized: 36%

Supercharged: 4%

Traversal: 2%

Predicted ranking points (district)Red 1.93 · Blue 0.84

Formula

RP = 2·P(win) + tie·P(tie) + Σ P(bonus)

Inputs

Rule setDistrict

Red projected score129pts

Blue projected score39.7pts

Red win probability75%

Event bonus sample194alliance-matches

Adjustments

Energized bonusred 36%, blue 30%

Supercharged bonusred 4%, blue 2%

Traversal bonusred 2%, blue 2%

District qualification: 2 RP win, 1 RP each bonus. Awards also feed district points.
Team bonus rates shrink toward the event mean (4-match prior).
Alliance bonus prob = geometric mean of team rates (all three must contribute).

Prediction detail

Predicted margin: 89.3
Score range: 19–150
Upset likelihood: 25%
Data cutoff: 2026-08-15
Model: apex-0.4.0

Match context

High scoring

Combined score 289 vs event baseline 114.6.

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Red vs Blue

Alliance sums (event-scoped where available)

323.5Season APEX179.8

25.7Auto11.2

72.9Teleop19.2

32.3Endgame14.1

49Consistency40

Score breakdown

Official phase points (TBA)

Phase	Red	Blue
auto	48	26
teleop	89	65
endgame	31	30
foul	0	0
total	168	121

Result

Final score

168 – 121

Prediction correct · off by 60.1 pts

Score check across official sources:

agree

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