FIM District Ferris State Event presented by Ferris State University

Qualification · Qualification 52

APEX prediction

Predicted winner

Blue alliance

Predicted score

46.85 – 96.54

35%65%

Actual result

Winner

Red alliance

Final score

49 – 44

Prediction missed · off by 27.3 points

red allianceTotal Season APEX 141.2 ±13.9

6005Cardinaltronics

Season APEX 69Event APEX 20.62Rank 14Record 7-5-0Status establishedConfidence 97

5704Weird & Wired

Season APEX 30.9Event APEX 7.12Rank 28Record 6-6-0Status establishedConfidence 97

5878The Great Lakers

Season APEX 41.3Event APEX 19.11Rank 25Record 5-7-0Status establishedConfidence 97

blue allianceTotal Season APEX 149.9 ±13.3

7794Eagle Engineers

Season APEX 61.9Event APEX 35.67Rank 17Record 6-6-0Status establishedConfidence 97

9673Volt Vespids

Season APEX 72.2Event APEX 50.94Rank 13Record 7-5-0Status establishedConfidence 97

7203Cyber Bearcats

Season APEX 15.8Event APEX 9.93Rank 36Record 3-9-0Status establishedConfidence 97

Scouting breakdown

Alliance compatibility and predicted ranking points, built from this event's completed matches.

Red · 6005, 5704, 5878

/ 100 compat

Projected

46.9 pts

~1.1 RP (district)

Teams: 6005, 5704, 5878

Auto

29.9 67%

Teleop

30.0 67%

Endgame

-15.4 0%

Strengths

· Strong autonomous coverage

Weaknesses

· Thin endgame coverage
· Below-average combined firepower
· Inconsistent match-to-match output

RP bonus probability

Energized: 32%

Supercharged: 3%

Traversal: 2%

Blue · 7794, 9673, 7203

/ 100 compat

Projected

96.5 pts

~1.8 RP (district)

Teams: 7794, 9673, 7203

Auto

21.0 22%

Teleop

45.2 47%

Endgame

29.2 31%

Strengths

· Reliable endgame stack
· Well-balanced across phases

Weaknesses

· Inconsistent match-to-match output

RP bonus probability

Energized: 32%

Supercharged: 3%

Traversal: 2%

Predicted ranking points (district)Red 1.07 · Blue 1.76

Formula

RP = 2·P(win) + tie·P(tie) + Σ P(bonus)

Inputs

Rule setDistrict

Red projected score46.9pts

Blue projected score96.5pts

Red win probability35%

Event bonus sample194alliance-matches

Adjustments

Energized bonusred 32%, blue 39%

Supercharged bonusred 3%, blue 4%

Traversal bonusred 2%, blue 2%

District qualification: 2 RP win, 1 RP each bonus. Awards also feed district points.
Team bonus rates shrink toward the event mean (4-match prior).
Alliance bonus prob = geometric mean of team rates (all three must contribute).

Prediction detail

Predicted margin: -49.7
Score range: 26–118
Upset likelihood: 35%
Data cutoff: 2026-08-15
Model: apex-0.4.0

Match context

Upset

Close match

Combined score 93 vs event baseline 116.

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Red vs Blue

Alliance sums (event-scoped where available)

141.2Season APEX149.9

29.9Auto21

30Teleop45.2

-15.4Endgame29.2

53Consistency25

Score breakdown

Official phase points (TBA)

Phase	Red	Blue
auto	23	22
teleop	15	10
endgame	11	12
foul	0	0
total	49	44

Result

Final score

49 – 44

Prediction missed · off by 27.3 pts

Score check across official sources:

agree

Match videos

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