FIM District Ferris State Event presented by Ferris State University

Qualification · Qualification 51

APEX prediction

Predicted winner

Blue alliance

Predicted score

106.48 – 166.82

32%68%

Actual result

Winner

Blue alliance

Final score

32 – 136

Prediction correct · off by 52.7 points

red allianceTotal Season APEX 204.1 ±11.7

6098bIrobot

Season APEX 34.9Event APEX 11.35Rank 34Record 4-8-0Status establishedConfidence 97

244RoboDawgs 3D

Season APEX 108.2Event APEX 69.47Rank 10Record 7-5-0Status establishedConfidence 100

6122Potential Energy

Season APEX 61Event APEX 25.66Rank 22Record 5-7-0Status establishedConfidence 97

blue allianceTotal Season APEX 242.8 ±12.8

288The RoboDawgs

Season APEX 127.3Event APEX 98.01Rank 4Record 10-2-0Status establishedConfidence 100

8611Cyber Patriots

Season APEX 65.3Event APEX 49.91Rank 16Record 6-6-0Status establishedConfidence 97

5525Alcona Tool Cats

Season APEX 50.2Event APEX 18.9Rank 26Record 5-7-0Status establishedConfidence 97

Scouting breakdown

Alliance compatibility and predicted ranking points, built from this event's completed matches.

Red · 6098, 244, 6122

/ 100 compat

Projected

106.5 pts

~1.0 RP (district)

Teams: 6098, 244, 6122

Auto

17.4 17%

Teleop

51.8 49%

Endgame

36.1 34%

Strengths

· Reliable endgame stack

Weaknesses

· Inconsistent match-to-match output

RP bonus probability

Energized: 33%

Supercharged: 3%

Traversal: 2%

Blue · 288, 8611, 5525

/ 100 compat

Projected

166.8 pts

~1.9 RP (district)

Teams: 288, 8611, 5525

Auto

14.6 9%

Teleop

117.5 69%

Endgame

39.2 23%

Strengths

· Elite combined APEX

Weaknesses

· Thin autonomous coverage
· Inconsistent match-to-match output

RP bonus probability

Energized: 33%

Supercharged: 3%

Traversal: 2%

Predicted ranking points (district)Red 1.02 · Blue 1.88

Formula

RP = 2·P(win) + tie·P(tie) + Σ P(bonus)

Inputs

Rule setDistrict

Red projected score106.5pts

Blue projected score166.8pts

Red win probability32%

Event bonus sample194alliance-matches

Adjustments

Energized bonusred 33%, blue 48%

Supercharged bonusred 3%, blue 2%

Traversal bonusred 2%, blue 2%

District qualification: 2 RP win, 1 RP each bonus. Awards also feed district points.
Team bonus rates shrink toward the event mean (4-match prior).
Alliance bonus prob = geometric mean of team rates (all three must contribute).

Prediction detail

Predicted margin: -60.3
Score range: 85–188
Upset likelihood: 32%
Data cutoff: 2026-08-15
Model: apex-0.4.0

Match context

Standard match.

Combined score 168 vs event baseline 116.6.

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Red vs Blue

Alliance sums (event-scoped where available)

204.1Season APEX242.8

17.4Auto14.6

51.8Teleop117.5

36.1Endgame39.2

27Consistency63

Score breakdown

Official phase points (TBA)

Phase	Red	Blue
auto	24	31
teleop	2	88
endgame	6	17
foul	0	0
total	32	136

Result

Final score

32 – 136

Prediction correct · off by 52.7 pts

Score check across official sources:

agree

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