FIM District Ferris State Event presented by Ferris State University

Qualification · Qualification 50

APEX prediction

Predicted winner

Red alliance

Predicted score

182.01 – 19.78

88%12%

Actual result

Winner

Red alliance

Final score

110 – 22

Prediction correct · off by 37.1 points

red allianceTotal Season APEX 300.2 ±11.2

5535Bionic Bison

Season APEX 130.9Event APEX 111.29Rank 5Record 9-3-0Status establishedConfidence 100

5182Chieftainators

Season APEX 22.5Event APEX 17.96Rank 31Record 5-7-0Status establishedConfidence 97

9771FPRO

Season APEX 146.8Event APEX 52.76Rank 11Record 7-5-0Status establishedConfidence 100

blue allianceTotal Season APEX 129.4 ±13.3

5162The Big Red Theory

Season APEX 46.8Event APEX -0.35Rank 19Record 6-6-0Status establishedConfidence 97

9731All Saints Range Precision

Season APEX 37.6Event APEX -6.01Rank 38Record 3-9-0Status establishedConfidence 97

6642Stingers of Steel

Season APEX 45Event APEX 26.14Rank 29Record 4-8-0Status establishedConfidence 97

Scouting breakdown

Alliance compatibility and predicted ranking points, built from this event's completed matches.

Red · 5535, 5182, 9771

/ 100 compat

Projected

182 pts

~2.2 RP (district)

Teams: 5535, 5182, 9771

Auto

24.2 15%

Teleop

109.2 68%

Endgame

26.1 16%

Strengths

· 5535 anchors offense
· Elite combined APEX

Weaknesses

· Inconsistent match-to-match output

RP bonus probability

Energized: 41%

Supercharged: 3%

Traversal: 2%

Blue · 5162, 9731, 6642

/ 100 compat

Projected

19.8 pts

~0.7 RP (district)

Teams: 5162, 9731, 6642

Auto

13.2 43%

Teleop

6.8 22%

Endgame

10.8 35%

Strengths

· Strong autonomous coverage
· Reliable endgame stack

Weaknesses

· Below-average combined firepower
· Inconsistent match-to-match output

RP bonus probability

Energized: 41%

Supercharged: 3%

Traversal: 2%

Predicted ranking points (district)Red 2.22 · Blue 0.66

Formula

RP = 2·P(win) + tie·P(tie) + Σ P(bonus)

Inputs

Rule setDistrict

Red projected score182pts

Blue projected score19.8pts

Red win probability88%

Event bonus sample194alliance-matches

Adjustments

Energized bonusred 41%, blue 38%

Supercharged bonusred 3%, blue 2%

Traversal bonusred 2%, blue 2%

District qualification: 2 RP win, 1 RP each bonus. Awards also feed district points.
Team bonus rates shrink toward the event mean (4-match prior).
Alliance bonus prob = geometric mean of team rates (all three must contribute).

Prediction detail

Predicted margin: 162.2
Score range: -1–203
Upset likelihood: 12%
Data cutoff: 2026-08-15
Model: apex-0.4.0

Match context

Standard match.

Combined score 132 vs event baseline 117.7.

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Red vs Blue

Alliance sums (event-scoped where available)

300.2Season APEX129.4

24.2Auto13.2

109.2Teleop6.8

26.1Endgame10.8

59Consistency99

Score breakdown

Official phase points (TBA)

Phase	Red	Blue
auto	24	10
teleop	71	6
endgame	15	6
foul	0	0
total	110	22

Result

Final score

110 – 22

Prediction correct · off by 37.1 pts

Score check across official sources:

agree

Match videos

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