FIM District Ferris State Event presented by Ferris State University

Qualification · Qualification 49

APEX prediction

Predicted winner

Blue alliance

Predicted score

48.81 – 129.47

27%73%

Actual result

Winner

Blue alliance

Final score

25 – 185

Prediction correct · off by 39.7 points

red allianceTotal Season APEX 133.4 ±13.9

7810Eagle Robotics

Season APEX 47Event APEX 21.25Rank 32Record 4-8-0Status establishedConfidence 97

9721Red Hawk Robotics

Season APEX 30Event APEX 21.69Rank 41Record 3-9-0Status establishedConfidence 97

9736Tawas Braves

Season APEX 56.4Event APEX 5.87Rank 33Record 4-8-0Status establishedConfidence 97

blue allianceTotal Season APEX 373.8 ±11.1

10421Coded Dragons

Season APEX 71.2Event APEX 13.9Rank 23Record 5-7-0Status establishedConfidence 97

6963Blood Sweat and Gears

Season APEX 55.4Event APEX 9.36Rank 12Record 7-5-0Status establishedConfidence 97

7160Ludington O-Bots

Season APEX 247.2Event APEX 106.21Rank 3Record 10-2-0Status establishedConfidence 100

Scouting breakdown

Alliance compatibility and predicted ranking points, built from this event's completed matches.

Red · 7810, 9721, 9736

/ 100 compat

Projected

48.8 pts

~0.8 RP (district)

Teams: 7810, 9721, 9736

Auto

12.9 26%

Teleop

21.0 43%

Endgame

15.1 31%

Strengths

· Reliable endgame stack
· Well-balanced across phases

Weaknesses

· Below-average combined firepower
· Inconsistent match-to-match output

RP bonus probability

Energized: 25%

Supercharged: 3%

Traversal: 2%

Blue · 10421, 6963, 7160

/ 100 compat

Projected

129.5 pts

~2.0 RP (district)

Teams: 10421, 6963, 7160

Auto

20.2 14%

Teleop

80.9 56%

Endgame

42.6 30%

Strengths

· 7160 anchors offense

Weaknesses

· Thin autonomous coverage
· Inconsistent match-to-match output

RP bonus probability

Energized: 25%

Supercharged: 3%

Traversal: 2%

Predicted ranking points (district)Red 0.84 · Blue 1.98

Formula

RP = 2·P(win) + tie·P(tie) + Σ P(bonus)

Inputs

Rule setDistrict

Red projected score48.8pts

Blue projected score129.5pts

Red win probability27%

Event bonus sample194alliance-matches

Adjustments

Energized bonusred 25%, blue 47%

Supercharged bonusred 3%, blue 3%

Traversal bonusred 2%, blue 2%

District qualification: 2 RP win, 1 RP each bonus. Awards also feed district points.
Team bonus rates shrink toward the event mean (4-match prior).
Alliance bonus prob = geometric mean of team rates (all three must contribute).

Prediction detail

Predicted margin: -80.7
Score range: 28–150
Upset likelihood: 27%
Data cutoff: 2026-08-15
Model: apex-0.4.0

Match context

Standard match.

Combined score 210 vs event baseline 117.9.

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Red vs Blue

Alliance sums (event-scoped where available)

133.4Season APEX373.8

12.9Auto20.2

21Teleop80.9

15.1Endgame42.6

106Consistency44

Score breakdown

Official phase points (TBA)

Phase	Red	Blue
auto	16	44
teleop	2	88
endgame	7	38
foul	0	15
total	25	185

Result

Final score

25 – 185

Prediction correct · off by 39.7 pts

Score check across official sources:

agree

Match videos

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