FIM District Ferris State Event presented by Ferris State University

Qualification · Qualification 48

APEX prediction

Predicted winner

Blue alliance

Predicted score

44.97 – 303.68

4%96%

Actual result

Winner

Blue alliance

Final score

68 – 404

Prediction correct · off by 61.7 points

red allianceTotal Season APEX 145.1 ±12.7

6100MS Mobots

Season APEX 68.9Event APEX 21.34Rank 18Record 6-6-0Status establishedConfidence 97

6091Eagle 1

Season APEX 41.4Event APEX 16.03Rank 24Record 6-6-0Status establishedConfidence 97

5213St. Ignace SHIELD

Season APEX 34.8Event APEX 7.6Rank 37Record 3-9-0Status establishedConfidence 97

blue allianceTotal Season APEX 402.6 ±11.7

5878The Great Lakers

Season APEX 41.3Event APEX 7.66Rank 25Record 5-7-0Status establishedConfidence 97

1718The Fighting Pi

Season APEX 114.8Event APEX 40.96Rank 2Record 11-1-0Status establishedConfidence 100

1918Newaygo County GEARS

Season APEX 246.5Event APEX 255.06Rank 1Record 12-0-0Status establishedConfidence 100

Scouting breakdown

Alliance compatibility and predicted ranking points, built from this event's completed matches.

Red · 6100, 6091, 5213

/ 100 compat

Projected

45 pts

~0.4 RP (district)

Teams: 6100, 6091, 5213

Auto

14.8 31%

Teleop

21.9 46%

Endgame

11.3 24%

Strengths

· Strong autonomous coverage
· Well-balanced across phases

Weaknesses

· Below-average combined firepower
· Inconsistent match-to-match output

RP bonus probability

Energized: 28%

Supercharged: 2%

Traversal: 2%

Blue · 5878, 1718, 1918

/ 100 compat

Projected

303.7 pts

~2.5 RP (district)

Teams: 5878, 1718, 1918

Auto

81.6 26%

Teleop

187.9 61%

Endgame

39.2 13%

Strengths

· 1918 anchors offense
· Elite combined APEX

Weaknesses

· Thin endgame coverage
· Inconsistent match-to-match output

RP bonus probability

Energized: 28%

Supercharged: 2%

Traversal: 2%

Predicted ranking points (district)Red 0.4 · Blue 2.54

Formula

RP = 2·P(win) + tie·P(tie) + Σ P(bonus)

Inputs

Rule setDistrict

Red projected score45pts

Blue projected score303.7pts

Red win probability4%

Event bonus sample194alliance-matches

Adjustments

Energized bonusred 28%, blue 50%

Supercharged bonusred 2%, blue 10%

Traversal bonusred 2%, blue 2%

District qualification: 2 RP win, 1 RP each bonus. Awards also feed district points.
Team bonus rates shrink toward the event mean (4-match prior).
Alliance bonus prob = geometric mean of team rates (all three must contribute).

Prediction detail

Predicted margin: -258.7
Score range: 24–325
Upset likelihood: 4%
Data cutoff: 2026-08-16
Model: apex-0.4.0

Match context

High scoring

Combined score 472 vs event baseline 115.4.

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Red vs Blue

Alliance sums (event-scoped where available)

145.1Season APEX402.6

14.8Auto81.6

21.9Teleop187.9

11.3Endgame39.2

92Consistency68

Score breakdown

Official phase points (TBA)

Phase	Red	Blue
auto	16	110
teleop	24	228
endgame	28	66
foul	0	0
total	68	404

Result

Final score

68 – 404

Prediction correct · off by 61.7 pts

Score check across official sources:

agree

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