FIM District Ferris State Event presented by Ferris State University

Qualification · Qualification 47

APEX prediction

Predicted winner

Blue alliance

Predicted score

71.08 – 104.7

40%60%

Actual result

Winner

Blue alliance

Final score

77 – 118

Prediction correct · off by 9.6 points

red allianceTotal Season APEX 147.1 ±13.9

9176Greenspire Steel Sturgeons

Season APEX 50.5Event APEX 43.37Rank 21Record 6-6-0Status establishedConfidence 97

5247Red Devil Robotics

Season APEX 46.4Event APEX 4.99Rank 27Record 6-6-0Status establishedConfidence 97

5525Alcona Tool Cats

Season APEX 50.2Event APEX 22.72Rank 26Record 5-7-0Status establishedConfidence 97

blue allianceTotal Season APEX 223.5 ±12.8

3618Petoskey Paladins

Season APEX 92.6Event APEX 52.34Rank 6Record 10-2-0Status establishedConfidence 100

7794Eagle Engineers

Season APEX 61.9Event APEX 33.81Rank 17Record 6-6-0Status establishedConfidence 97

6005Cardinaltronics

Season APEX 69Event APEX 18.55Rank 14Record 7-5-0Status establishedConfidence 97

Scouting breakdown

Alliance compatibility and predicted ranking points, built from this event's completed matches.

Red · 9176, 5247, 5525

/ 100 compat

Projected

71.1 pts

~1.1 RP (district)

Teams: 9176, 5247, 5525

Auto

18.9 39%

Teleop

21.8 45%

Endgame

8.2 17%

Strengths

· Strong autonomous coverage

Weaknesses

· Below-average combined firepower
· Inconsistent match-to-match output

RP bonus probability

Energized: 32%

Supercharged: 2%

Traversal: 2%

Blue · 3618, 7794, 6005

/ 100 compat

Projected

104.7 pts

~1.7 RP (district)

Teams: 3618, 7794, 6005

Auto

36.9 39%

Teleop

41.3 44%

Endgame

16.2 17%

Strengths

· Strong autonomous coverage

Weaknesses

· Inconsistent match-to-match output

RP bonus probability

Energized: 32%

Supercharged: 2%

Traversal: 2%

Predicted ranking points (district)Red 1.15 · Blue 1.71

Formula

RP = 2·P(win) + tie·P(tie) + Σ P(bonus)

Inputs

Rule setDistrict

Red projected score71.1pts

Blue projected score104.7pts

Red win probability40%

Event bonus sample194alliance-matches

Adjustments

Energized bonusred 32%, blue 45%

Supercharged bonusred 2%, blue 3%

Traversal bonusred 2%, blue 2%

District qualification: 2 RP win, 1 RP each bonus. Awards also feed district points.
Team bonus rates shrink toward the event mean (4-match prior).
Alliance bonus prob = geometric mean of team rates (all three must contribute).

Prediction detail

Predicted margin: -33.6
Score range: 50–126
Upset likelihood: 40%
Data cutoff: 2026-08-15
Model: apex-0.4.0

Match context

Standard match.

Combined score 195 vs event baseline 115.8.

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Red vs Blue

Alliance sums (event-scoped where available)

147.1Season APEX223.5

18.9Auto36.9

21.8Teleop41.3

8.2Endgame16.2

90Consistency0

Score breakdown

Official phase points (TBA)

Phase	Red	Blue
auto	14	22
teleop	40	71
endgame	23	25
foul	0	0
total	77	118

Result

Final score

77 – 118

Prediction correct · off by 9.6 pts

Score check across official sources:

agree

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