FIM District Ferris State Event presented by Ferris State University

Qualification · Qualification 46

APEX prediction

Predicted winner

Red alliance

Predicted score

129.33 – 24.52

79%21%

Actual result

Winner

Red alliance

Final score

147 – 21

Prediction correct · off by 10.6 points

red allianceTotal Season APEX 301.6 ±9.9

244RoboDawgs 3D

Season APEX 108.2Event APEX 65.31Rank 10Record 7-5-0Status establishedConfidence 100

9771FPRO

Season APEX 146.8Event APEX 53.69Rank 11Record 7-5-0Status establishedConfidence 100

8286E.A.G.L.E.S. Robotics

Season APEX 46.6Event APEX 10.33Rank 40Record 3-9-0Status establishedConfidence 97

blue allianceTotal Season APEX 103.4 ±13.9

7911Scrap Cat Robotics Team Puma

Season APEX 49.6Event APEX 24.28Rank 39Record 3-9-0Status establishedConfidence 97

5182Chieftainators

Season APEX 22.5Event APEX 15.77Rank 31Record 5-7-0Status establishedConfidence 97

11435St. Peter's High School RaiderBots

Season APEX 31.3Event APEX -15.53Rank 35Record 3-9-0Status establishedConfidence 97

Scouting breakdown

Alliance compatibility and predicted ranking points, built from this event's completed matches.

Red · 244, 9771, 8286

/ 100 compat

Projected

129.3 pts

~1.9 RP (district)

Teams: 244, 9771, 8286

Auto

19.3 15%

Teleop

75.9 58%

Endgame

36.4 28%

Strengths

–

Weaknesses

· Thin autonomous coverage

RP bonus probability

Energized: 34%

Supercharged: 2%

Traversal: 2%

Blue · 7911, 5182, 11435

/ 100 compat

Projected

24.5 pts

~0.7 RP (district)

Teams: 7911, 5182, 11435

Auto

6.6 0%

Teleop

-4.6 70%

Endgame

-8.6 100%

Strengths

· Reliable endgame stack

Weaknesses

· Thin autonomous coverage
· Below-average combined firepower
· Inconsistent match-to-match output

RP bonus probability

Energized: 34%

Supercharged: 2%

Traversal: 2%

Predicted ranking points (district)Red 1.95 · Blue 0.73

Formula

RP = 2·P(win) + tie·P(tie) + Σ P(bonus)

Inputs

Rule setDistrict

Red projected score129.3pts

Blue projected score24.5pts

Red win probability79%

Event bonus sample194alliance-matches

Adjustments

Energized bonusred 34%, blue 26%

Supercharged bonusred 2%, blue 2%

Traversal bonusred 2%, blue 2%

District qualification: 2 RP win, 1 RP each bonus. Awards also feed district points.
Team bonus rates shrink toward the event mean (4-match prior).
Alliance bonus prob = geometric mean of team rates (all three must contribute).

Prediction detail

Predicted margin: 104.8
Score range: 4–150
Upset likelihood: 21%
Data cutoff: 2026-08-15
Model: apex-0.4.0

Match context

Standard match.

Combined score 168 vs event baseline 116.5.

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Red vs Blue

Alliance sums (event-scoped where available)

301.6Season APEX103.4

19.3Auto6.6

75.9Teleop-4.6

36.4Endgame-8.6

132Consistency31

Score breakdown

Official phase points (TBA)

Phase	Red	Blue
auto	20	7
teleop	86	11
endgame	41	3
foul	0	0
total	147	21

Result

Final score

147 – 21

Prediction correct · off by 10.6 pts

Score check across official sources:

agree

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