FIM District Ferris State Event presented by Ferris State University

Qualification · Qualification 44

APEX prediction

Predicted winner

Blue alliance

Predicted score

55.64 – 146.91

24%76%

Actual result

Winner

Blue alliance

Final score

32 – 221

Prediction correct · off by 48.9 points

red allianceTotal Season APEX 133.2 ±13.3

7203Cyber Bearcats

Season APEX 15.8Event APEX 13.95Rank 36Record 3-9-0Status establishedConfidence 97

9736Tawas Braves

Season APEX 56.4Event APEX 10.56Rank 33Record 4-8-0Status establishedConfidence 97

6122Potential Energy

Season APEX 61Event APEX 31.13Rank 22Record 5-7-0Status establishedConfidence 97

blue allianceTotal Season APEX 264.7 ±12.2

5183Devil Bots

Season APEX 39.8Event APEX 11.67Rank 30Record 4-8-0Status establishedConfidence 97

288The RoboDawgs

Season APEX 127.3Event APEX 90.12Rank 4Record 10-2-0Status establishedConfidence 100

4004M.A.R.S. Rovers

Season APEX 97.6Event APEX 45.12Rank 8Record 8-4-0Status establishedConfidence 97

Scouting breakdown

Alliance compatibility and predicted ranking points, built from this event's completed matches.

Red · 7203, 9736, 6122

/ 100 compat

Projected

55.6 pts

~0.9 RP (district)

Teams: 7203, 9736, 6122

Auto

7.6 11%

Teleop

37.5 56%

Endgame

22.0 33%

Strengths

· Reliable endgame stack

Weaknesses

· Thin autonomous coverage
· Below-average combined firepower
· Inconsistent match-to-match output

RP bonus probability

Energized: 35%

Supercharged: 3%

Traversal: 2%

Blue · 5183, 288, 4004

/ 100 compat

Projected

146.9 pts

~2.0 RP (district)

Teams: 5183, 288, 4004

Auto

17.5 12%

Teleop

92.1 62%

Endgame

37.9 26%

Strengths

–

Weaknesses

· Thin autonomous coverage
· Inconsistent match-to-match output

RP bonus probability

Energized: 35%

Supercharged: 3%

Traversal: 2%

Predicted ranking points (district)Red 0.89 · Blue 2.04

Formula

RP = 2·P(win) + tie·P(tie) + Σ P(bonus)

Inputs

Rule setDistrict

Red projected score55.6pts

Blue projected score146.9pts

Red win probability24%

Event bonus sample194alliance-matches

Adjustments

Energized bonusred 35%, blue 49%

Supercharged bonusred 3%, blue 2%

Traversal bonusred 2%, blue 2%

District qualification: 2 RP win, 1 RP each bonus. Awards also feed district points.
Team bonus rates shrink toward the event mean (4-match prior).
Alliance bonus prob = geometric mean of team rates (all three must contribute).

Prediction detail

Predicted margin: -91.3
Score range: 35–168
Upset likelihood: 24%
Data cutoff: 2026-08-15
Model: apex-0.4.0

Match context

Standard match.

Combined score 253 vs event baseline 117.

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Red vs Blue

Alliance sums (event-scoped where available)

133.2Season APEX264.7

7.6Auto17.5

37.5Teleop92.1

22Endgame37.9

66Consistency54

Score breakdown

Official phase points (TBA)

Phase	Red	Blue
auto	19	24
teleop	8	149
endgame	5	48
foul	0	0
total	32	221

Result

Final score

32 – 221

Prediction correct · off by 48.9 pts

Score check across official sources:

agree

Match videos

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