FIM District Ferris State Event presented by Ferris State University

Qualification · Qualification 42

APEX prediction

Predicted winner

Red alliance

Predicted score

46.78 – 36.27

53%47%

Actual result

Winner

Red alliance

Final score

125 – 65

Prediction correct · off by 53.5 points

red allianceTotal Season APEX 198.1 ±12.2

6963Blood Sweat and Gears

Season APEX 55.4Event APEX -1.38Rank 12Record 7-5-0Status establishedConfidence 97

5162The Big Red Theory

Season APEX 46.8Event APEX -5.39Rank 19Record 6-6-0Status establishedConfidence 97

5982Merrill's Circuits of Destruction

Season APEX 95.9Event APEX 53.55Rank 7Record 8-4-0Status establishedConfidence 100

blue allianceTotal Season APEX 105.9 ±13.3

5704Weird & Wired

Season APEX 30.9Event APEX -0.38Rank 28Record 6-6-0Status establishedConfidence 97

6642Stingers of Steel

Season APEX 45Event APEX 22.44Rank 29Record 4-8-0Status establishedConfidence 97

9721Red Hawk Robotics

Season APEX 30Event APEX 14.21Rank 41Record 3-9-0Status establishedConfidence 97

Scouting breakdown

Alliance compatibility and predicted ranking points, built from this event's completed matches.

Red · 6963, 5162, 5982

/ 100 compat

Projected

46.8 pts

~1.6 RP (district)

Teams: 6963, 5162, 5982

Auto

1.8 3%

Teleop

29.5 54%

Endgame

23.3 43%

Strengths

· Reliable endgame stack

Weaknesses

· Thin autonomous coverage
· Below-average combined firepower
· Inconsistent match-to-match output

RP bonus probability

Energized: 49%

Supercharged: 3%

Traversal: 2%

Blue · 5704, 6642, 9721

/ 100 compat

Projected

36.3 pts

~1.2 RP (district)

Teams: 5704, 6642, 9721

Auto

-2.6 0%

Teleop

8.2 47%

Endgame

12.0 68%

Strengths

· Reliable endgame stack

Weaknesses

· Thin autonomous coverage
· Below-average combined firepower

RP bonus probability

Energized: 49%

Supercharged: 3%

Traversal: 2%

Predicted ranking points (district)Red 1.6 · Blue 1.22

Formula

RP = 2·P(win) + tie·P(tie) + Σ P(bonus)

Inputs

Rule setDistrict

Red projected score46.8pts

Blue projected score36.3pts

Red win probability53%

Event bonus sample194alliance-matches

Adjustments

Energized bonusred 49%, blue 25%

Supercharged bonusred 3%, blue 2%

Traversal bonusred 2%, blue 2%

District qualification: 2 RP win, 1 RP each bonus. Awards also feed district points.
Team bonus rates shrink toward the event mean (4-match prior).
Alliance bonus prob = geometric mean of team rates (all three must contribute).

Prediction detail

Predicted margin: 10.5
Score range: 16–67
Upset likelihood: 47%
Data cutoff: 2026-08-15
Model: apex-0.4.0

Match context

Standard match.

Combined score 190 vs event baseline 113.7.

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Red vs Blue

Alliance sums (event-scoped where available)

198.1Season APEX105.9

1.8Auto-2.6

29.5Teleop8.2

23.3Endgame12

0Consistency138

Score breakdown

Official phase points (TBA)

Phase	Red	Blue
auto	16	20
teleop	53	40
endgame	56	5
foul	0	0
total	125	65

Result

Final score

125 – 65

Prediction correct · off by 53.5 pts

Score check across official sources:

agree

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