FIM District Ferris State Event presented by Ferris State University

Qualification · Qualification 41

APEX prediction

Predicted winner

Red alliance

Predicted score

81.03 – 73.81

52%48%

Actual result

Winner

Red alliance

Final score

153 – 67

Prediction correct · off by 39.4 points

red allianceTotal Season APEX 215.5 ±12.7

6077Wiking Kujon

Season APEX 101.9Event APEX 43.7Rank 20Record 5-7-0Status establishedConfidence 97

6091Eagle 1

Season APEX 41.4Event APEX -0.74Rank 24Record 6-6-0Status establishedConfidence 97

9673Volt Vespids

Season APEX 72.2Event APEX 38.07Rank 13Record 7-5-0Status establishedConfidence 97

blue allianceTotal Season APEX 146.9 ±13.3

5525Alcona Tool Cats

Season APEX 50.2Event APEX 29.43Rank 26Record 5-7-0Status establishedConfidence 97

5213St. Ignace SHIELD

Season APEX 34.8Event APEX 10.79Rank 37Record 3-9-0Status establishedConfidence 97

7794Eagle Engineers

Season APEX 61.9Event APEX 33.59Rank 17Record 6-6-0Status establishedConfidence 97

Scouting breakdown

Alliance compatibility and predicted ranking points, built from this event's completed matches.

Red · 6077, 6091, 9673

/ 100 compat

Projected

81 pts

~1.5 RP (district)

Teams: 6077, 6091, 9673

Auto

17.2 21%

Teleop

44.4 54%

Endgame

21.2 26%

Strengths

· Well-balanced across phases

Weaknesses

· Below-average combined firepower
· Inconsistent match-to-match output

RP bonus probability

Energized: 37%

Supercharged: 3%

Traversal: 2%

Blue · 5525, 5213, 7794

/ 100 compat

Projected

73.8 pts

~1.4 RP (district)

Teams: 5525, 5213, 7794

Auto

30.5 41%

Teleop

39.4 53%

Endgame

4.4 6%

Strengths

· Strong autonomous coverage

Weaknesses

· Thin endgame coverage
· Below-average combined firepower
· Inconsistent match-to-match output

RP bonus probability

Energized: 37%

Supercharged: 3%

Traversal: 2%

Predicted ranking points (district)Red 1.46 · Blue 1.35

Formula

RP = 2·P(win) + tie·P(tie) + Σ P(bonus)

Inputs

Rule setDistrict

Red projected score81pts

Blue projected score73.8pts

Red win probability52%

Event bonus sample194alliance-matches

Adjustments

Energized bonusred 37%, blue 35%

Supercharged bonusred 3%, blue 3%

Traversal bonusred 2%, blue 2%

District qualification: 2 RP win, 1 RP each bonus. Awards also feed district points.
Team bonus rates shrink toward the event mean (4-match prior).
Alliance bonus prob = geometric mean of team rates (all three must contribute).

Prediction detail

Predicted margin: 7.2
Score range: 54–101
Upset likelihood: 48%
Data cutoff: 2026-08-15
Model: apex-0.4.0

Match context

Standard match.

Combined score 220 vs event baseline 113.8.

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Red vs Blue

Alliance sums (event-scoped where available)

215.5Season APEX146.9

17.2Auto30.5

44.4Teleop39.4

21.2Endgame4.4

84Consistency86

Score breakdown

Official phase points (TBA)

Phase	Red	Blue
auto	33	14
teleop	77	32
endgame	43	21
foul	0	0
total	153	67

Result

Final score

153 – 67

Prediction correct · off by 39.4 pts

Score check across official sources:

agree

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