FIM District Ferris State Event presented by Ferris State University

Qualification · Qualification 4

APEX prediction

Predicted winner

Blue alliance

Predicted score

84.43 – 329.21

5%95%

Actual result

Winner

Blue alliance

Final score

96 – 352

Prediction correct · off by 17.2 points

red allianceTotal Season APEX 260.1 ±12.4

3603Cyber Coyotes

Season APEX 181.2Event APEX 60.34Rank 9Record 8-4-0Status establishedConfidence 100

5182Chieftainators

Season APEX 22.5Event APEX 7.73Rank 31Record 5-7-0Status establishedConfidence 97

9736Tawas Braves

Season APEX 56.4Event APEX 16.36Rank 33Record 4-8-0Status establishedConfidence 97

blue allianceTotal Season APEX 380.8 ±12.8

6005Cardinaltronics

Season APEX 69Event APEX 33.48Rank 14Record 7-5-0Status establishedConfidence 97

1918Newaygo County GEARS

Season APEX 246.5Event APEX 245.72Rank 1Record 12-0-0Status establishedConfidence 100

8611Cyber Patriots

Season APEX 65.3Event APEX 50.01Rank 16Record 6-6-0Status establishedConfidence 97

Scouting breakdown

Alliance compatibility and predicted ranking points, built from this event's completed matches.

Red · 3603, 5182, 9736

/ 100 compat

Projected

84.4 pts

~0.5 RP (district)

Teams: 3603, 5182, 9736

Auto

28.4 32%

Teleop

48.1 54%

Endgame

11.8 13%

Strengths

· Strong autonomous coverage

Weaknesses

· Thin endgame coverage
· Below-average combined firepower
· Inconsistent match-to-match output

RP bonus probability

Energized: 32%

Supercharged: 3%

Traversal: 2%

Blue · 6005, 1918, 8611

/ 100 compat

Projected

329.2 pts

~2.5 RP (district)

Teams: 6005, 1918, 8611

Auto

78.6 24%

Teleop

195.1 59%

Endgame

56.9 17%

Strengths

· 1918 anchors offense
· Elite combined APEX

Weaknesses

· Inconsistent match-to-match output

RP bonus probability

Energized: 32%

Supercharged: 3%

Traversal: 2%

Predicted ranking points (district)Red 0.46 · Blue 2.48

Formula

RP = 2·P(win) + tie·P(tie) + Σ P(bonus)

Inputs

Rule setDistrict

Red projected score84.4pts

Blue projected score329.2pts

Red win probability5%

Event bonus sample194alliance-matches

Adjustments

Energized bonusred 32%, blue 51%

Supercharged bonusred 3%, blue 5%

Traversal bonusred 2%, blue 2%

District qualification: 2 RP win, 1 RP each bonus. Awards also feed district points.
Team bonus rates shrink toward the event mean (4-match prior).
Alliance bonus prob = geometric mean of team rates (all three must contribute).

Prediction detail

Predicted margin: -244.8
Score range: 61–352
Upset likelihood: 5%
Data cutoff: 2026-08-15
Model: apex-0.4.0

Match context

High scoring

Combined score 448 vs event baseline 127.7.

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Red vs Blue

Alliance sums (event-scoped where available)

260.1Season APEX380.8

28.4Auto78.6

48.1Teleop195.1

11.8Endgame56.9

67Consistency0

Score breakdown

Official phase points (TBA)

Phase	Red	Blue
auto	26	101
teleop	45	216
endgame	25	35
foul	0	0
total	96	352

Result

Final score

96 – 352

Prediction correct · off by 17.2 pts

Score check across official sources:

agree

Match videos

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