FIM District Ferris State Event presented by Ferris State University

Qualification · Qualification 38

APEX prediction

Predicted winner

Red alliance

Predicted score

312.64 – 111.45

92%8%

Actual result

Winner

Red alliance

Final score

317 – 149

Prediction correct · off by 21 points

red allianceTotal Season APEX 378.9 ±11.7

5183Devil Bots

Season APEX 39.8Event APEX 13.62Rank 30Record 4-8-0Status establishedConfidence 97

3618Petoskey Paladins

Season APEX 92.6Event APEX 51.28Rank 6Record 10-2-0Status establishedConfidence 100

1918Newaygo County GEARS

Season APEX 246.5Event APEX 247.74Rank 1Record 12-0-0Status establishedConfidence 100

blue allianceTotal Season APEX 232.4 ±12.2

8611Cyber Patriots

Season APEX 65.3Event APEX 56.36Rank 16Record 6-6-0Status establishedConfidence 97

10421Coded Dragons

Season APEX 71.2Event APEX 13.53Rank 23Record 5-7-0Status establishedConfidence 97

5982Merrill's Circuits of Destruction

Season APEX 95.9Event APEX 41.56Rank 7Record 8-4-0Status establishedConfidence 100

Scouting breakdown

Alliance compatibility and predicted ranking points, built from this event's completed matches.

Red · 5183, 3618, 1918

/ 100 compat

Projected

312.6 pts

~2.4 RP (district)

Teams: 5183, 3618, 1918

Auto

65.5 23%

Teleop

174.8 60%

Endgame

48.8 17%

Strengths

· 1918 anchors offense
· Elite combined APEX

Weaknesses

· Inconsistent match-to-match output

RP bonus probability

Energized: 49%

Supercharged: 5%

Traversal: 2%

Blue · 8611, 10421, 5982

/ 100 compat

Projected

111.5 pts

~0.6 RP (district)

Teams: 8611, 10421, 5982

Auto

16.1 13%

Teleop

62.6 50%

Endgame

47.0 37%

Strengths

· Reliable endgame stack

Weaknesses

· Thin autonomous coverage
· Inconsistent match-to-match output

RP bonus probability

Energized: 49%

Supercharged: 5%

Traversal: 2%

Predicted ranking points (district)Red 2.41 · Blue 0.64

Formula

RP = 2·P(win) + tie·P(tie) + Σ P(bonus)

Inputs

Rule setDistrict

Red projected score312.6pts

Blue projected score111.5pts

Red win probability92%

Event bonus sample194alliance-matches

Adjustments

Energized bonusred 49%, blue 43%

Supercharged bonusred 5%, blue 4%

Traversal bonusred 2%, blue 2%

District qualification: 2 RP win, 1 RP each bonus. Awards also feed district points.
Team bonus rates shrink toward the event mean (4-match prior).
Alliance bonus prob = geometric mean of team rates (all three must contribute).

Prediction detail

Predicted margin: 201.2
Score range: 91–333
Upset likelihood: 8%
Data cutoff: 2026-08-15
Model: apex-0.4.0

Match context

High scoring

Combined score 466 vs event baseline 109.8.

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Red vs Blue

Alliance sums (event-scoped where available)

378.9Season APEX232.4

65.5Auto16.1

174.8Teleop62.6

48.8Endgame47

67Consistency56

Score breakdown

Official phase points (TBA)

Phase	Red	Blue
auto	65	13
teleop	189	87
endgame	63	49
foul	0	0
total	317	149

Result

Final score

317 – 149

Prediction correct · off by 21 pts

Score check across official sources:

agree

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