FIM District Ferris State Event presented by Ferris State University

Qualification · Qualification 37

APEX prediction

Predicted winner

Blue alliance

Predicted score

0 – 104.2

21%79%

Actual result

Winner

Red alliance

Final score

64 – 57

Prediction missed · off by 55.6 points

red allianceTotal Season APEX 160.8 ±12.7

7109Clare Chaos Theory

Season APEX 58.8Event APEX 4.6Rank 15Record 6-6-0Status establishedConfidence 97

8286E.A.G.L.E.S. Robotics

Season APEX 46.6Event APEX 8.55Rank 40Record 3-9-0Status establishedConfidence 97

6963Blood Sweat and Gears

Season APEX 55.4Event APEX -13.67Rank 12Record 7-5-0Status establishedConfidence 97

blue allianceTotal Season APEX 262.6 ±12.4

9771FPRO

Season APEX 146.8Event APEX 68.27Rank 11Record 7-5-0Status establishedConfidence 100

6005Cardinaltronics

Season APEX 69Event APEX 38.29Rank 14Record 7-5-0Status establishedConfidence 97

5162The Big Red Theory

Season APEX 46.8Event APEX -2.36Rank 19Record 6-6-0Status establishedConfidence 97

Scouting breakdown

Alliance compatibility and predicted ranking points, built from this event's completed matches.

Red · 7109, 8286, 6963

/ 100 compat

Projected

-0.5 pts

~0.8 RP (district)

Teams: 7109, 8286, 6963

Auto

1.5 6%

Teleop

15.0 57%

Endgame

10.0 38%

Strengths

· Reliable endgame stack

Weaknesses

· Thin autonomous coverage
· Below-average combined firepower
· Inconsistent match-to-match output

RP bonus probability

Energized: 34%

Supercharged: 2%

Traversal: 2%

Blue · 9771, 6005, 5162

/ 100 compat

Projected

104.2 pts

~2.1 RP (district)

Teams: 9771, 6005, 5162

Auto

38.5 31%

Teleop

75.6 62%

Endgame

8.4 7%

Strengths

· Strong autonomous coverage

Weaknesses

· Thin endgame coverage
· Inconsistent match-to-match output

RP bonus probability

Energized: 34%

Supercharged: 2%

Traversal: 2%

Predicted ranking points (district)Red 0.81 · Blue 2.09

Formula

RP = 2·P(win) + tie·P(tie) + Σ P(bonus)

Inputs

Rule setDistrict

Red projected score-0.5pts

Blue projected score104.2pts

Red win probability21%

Event bonus sample194alliance-matches

Adjustments

Energized bonusred 34%, blue 47%

Supercharged bonusred 2%, blue 2%

Traversal bonusred 2%, blue 2%

District qualification: 2 RP win, 1 RP each bonus. Awards also feed district points.
Team bonus rates shrink toward the event mean (4-match prior).
Alliance bonus prob = geometric mean of team rates (all three must contribute).

Prediction detail

Predicted margin: -104.2
Score range: -20–124
Upset likelihood: 21%
Data cutoff: 2026-08-15
Model: apex-0.4.0

Match context

Upset

Close match

Combined score 121 vs event baseline 111.2.

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Red vs Blue

Alliance sums (event-scoped where available)

160.8Season APEX262.6

1.5Auto38.5

15Teleop75.6

10Endgame8.4

87Consistency44

Score breakdown

Official phase points (TBA)

Phase	Red	Blue
auto	24	17
teleop	36	26
endgame	4	14
foul	0	0
total	64	57

Result

Final score

64 – 57

Prediction missed · off by 55.6 pts

Score check across official sources:

agree

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