FIM District Ferris State Event presented by Ferris State University

Qualification · Qualification 36

APEX prediction

Predicted winner

Red alliance

Predicted score

74.62 – 25.33

65%35%

Actual result

Winner

Blue alliance

Final score

59 – 95

Prediction missed · off by 42.6 points

red allianceTotal Season APEX 152.4 ±12.7

5247Red Devil Robotics

Season APEX 46.4Event APEX 7.23Rank 27Record 6-6-0Status establishedConfidence 97

6122Potential Energy

Season APEX 61Event APEX 40.92Rank 22Record 5-7-0Status establishedConfidence 97

6642Stingers of Steel

Season APEX 45Event APEX 26.47Rank 29Record 4-8-0Status establishedConfidence 97

blue allianceTotal Season APEX 184.9 ±13.3

9736Tawas Braves

Season APEX 56.4Event APEX 7.69Rank 33Record 4-8-0Status establishedConfidence 97

4004M.A.R.S. Rovers

Season APEX 97.6Event APEX 28.88Rank 8Record 8-4-0Status establishedConfidence 97

5704Weird & Wired

Season APEX 30.9Event APEX -11.24Rank 28Record 6-6-0Status establishedConfidence 97

Scouting breakdown

Alliance compatibility and predicted ranking points, built from this event's completed matches.

Red · 5247, 6122, 6642

/ 100 compat

Projected

74.6 pts

~1.7 RP (district)

Teams: 5247, 6122, 6642

Auto

15.1 19%

Teleop

41.9 52%

Endgame

24.0 30%

Strengths

· Well-balanced across phases

Weaknesses

· Below-average combined firepower
· Inconsistent match-to-match output

RP bonus probability

Energized: 32%

Supercharged: 3%

Traversal: 2%

Blue · 9736, 4004, 5704

/ 100 compat

Projected

25.3 pts

~1.1 RP (district)

Teams: 9736, 4004, 5704

Auto

13.2 39%

Teleop

19.4 57%

Endgame

1.6 5%

Strengths

· Strong autonomous coverage

Weaknesses

· Thin endgame coverage
· Below-average combined firepower

RP bonus probability

Energized: 32%

Supercharged: 3%

Traversal: 2%

Predicted ranking points (district)Red 1.67 · Blue 1.08

Formula

RP = 2·P(win) + tie·P(tie) + Σ P(bonus)

Inputs

Rule setDistrict

Red projected score74.6pts

Blue projected score25.3pts

Red win probability65%

Event bonus sample194alliance-matches

Adjustments

Energized bonusred 32%, blue 34%

Supercharged bonusred 3%, blue 2%

Traversal bonusred 2%, blue 2%

District qualification: 2 RP win, 1 RP each bonus. Awards also feed district points.
Team bonus rates shrink toward the event mean (4-match prior).
Alliance bonus prob = geometric mean of team rates (all three must contribute).

Prediction detail

Predicted margin: 49.3
Score range: 5–95
Upset likelihood: 35%
Data cutoff: 2026-08-15
Model: apex-0.4.0

Match context

Standard match.

Combined score 154 vs event baseline 112.2.

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Red vs Blue

Alliance sums (event-scoped where available)

152.4Season APEX184.9

15.1Auto13.2

41.9Teleop19.4

24Endgame1.6

84Consistency135

Score breakdown

Official phase points (TBA)

Phase	Red	Blue
auto	29	19
teleop	28	57
endgame	2	19
foul	0	0
total	59	95

Result

Final score

59 – 95

Prediction missed · off by 42.6 pts

Score check across official sources:

agree

Match videos

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