FIM District Ferris State Event presented by Ferris State University

Qualification · Qualification 35

APEX prediction

Predicted winner

Red alliance

Predicted score

90.84 – 70.2

56%44%

Actual result

Winner

Red alliance

Final score

76 – 20

Prediction correct · off by 32.5 points

red allianceTotal Season APEX 248.8 ±12.4

9731All Saints Range Precision

Season APEX 37.6Event APEX -1.81Rank 38Record 3-9-0Status establishedConfidence 97

9721Red Hawk Robotics

Season APEX 30Event APEX 7.72Rank 41Record 3-9-0Status establishedConfidence 97

3603Cyber Coyotes

Season APEX 181.2Event APEX 84.93Rank 9Record 8-4-0Status establishedConfidence 100

blue allianceTotal Season APEX 106.7 ±13.9

7911Scrap Cat Robotics Team Puma

Season APEX 49.6Event APEX 22.64Rank 39Record 3-9-0Status establishedConfidence 97

7203Cyber Bearcats

Season APEX 15.8Event APEX 33.1Rank 36Record 3-9-0Status establishedConfidence 97

5878The Great Lakers

Season APEX 41.3Event APEX 14.46Rank 25Record 5-7-0Status establishedConfidence 97

Scouting breakdown

Alliance compatibility and predicted ranking points, built from this event's completed matches.

Red · 9731, 9721, 3603

/ 100 compat

Projected

90.8 pts

~1.4 RP (district)

Teams: 9731, 9721, 3603

Auto

27.7 30%

Teleop

40.5 44%

Endgame

23.9 26%

Strengths

· Strong autonomous coverage
· Well-balanced across phases

Weaknesses

· Inconsistent match-to-match output

RP bonus probability

Energized: 27%

Supercharged: 3%

Traversal: 2%

Blue · 7911, 7203, 5878

/ 100 compat

Projected

70.2 pts

~1.2 RP (district)

Teams: 7911, 7203, 5878

Auto

4.2 17%

Teleop

24.5 96%

Endgame

-3.3 0%

Strengths

–

Weaknesses

· Thin endgame coverage
· Below-average combined firepower
· Inconsistent match-to-match output

RP bonus probability

Energized: 27%

Supercharged: 3%

Traversal: 2%

Predicted ranking points (district)Red 1.45 · Blue 1.22

Formula

RP = 2·P(win) + tie·P(tie) + Σ P(bonus)

Inputs

Rule setDistrict

Red projected score90.8pts

Blue projected score70.2pts

Red win probability56%

Event bonus sample194alliance-matches

Adjustments

Energized bonusred 27%, blue 30%

Supercharged bonusred 3%, blue 3%

Traversal bonusred 2%, blue 2%

District qualification: 2 RP win, 1 RP each bonus. Awards also feed district points.
Team bonus rates shrink toward the event mean (4-match prior).
Alliance bonus prob = geometric mean of team rates (all three must contribute).

Prediction detail

Predicted margin: 20.6
Score range: 49–112
Upset likelihood: 44%
Data cutoff: 2026-08-15
Model: apex-0.4.0

Match context

Standard match.

Combined score 96 vs event baseline 114.1.

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Red vs Blue

Alliance sums (event-scoped where available)

248.8Season APEX106.7

27.7Auto4.2

40.5Teleop24.5

23.9Endgame-3.3

96Consistency39

Score breakdown

Official phase points (TBA)

Phase	Red	Blue
auto	16	11
teleop	52	8
endgame	8	1
foul	0	0
total	76	20

Result

Final score

76 – 20

Prediction correct · off by 32.5 pts

Score check across official sources:

agree

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