FIM District Ferris State Event presented by Ferris State University

Qualification · Qualification 34

APEX prediction

Predicted winner

Red alliance

Predicted score

125.57 – 22.36

78%22%

Actual result

Winner

Red alliance

Final score

170 – 40

Prediction correct · off by 31 points

red allianceTotal Season APEX 222 ±12.2

9673Volt Vespids

Season APEX 72.2Event APEX 23.19Rank 13Record 7-5-0Status establishedConfidence 97

288The RoboDawgs

Season APEX 127.3Event APEX 99.13Rank 4Record 10-2-0Status establishedConfidence 100

5182Chieftainators

Season APEX 22.5Event APEX 3.25Rank 31Record 5-7-0Status establishedConfidence 97

blue allianceTotal Season APEX 122.9 ±13.9

11435St. Peter's High School RaiderBots

Season APEX 31.3Event APEX 19.01Rank 35Record 3-9-0Status establishedConfidence 97

5525Alcona Tool Cats

Season APEX 50.2Event APEX 20.28Rank 26Record 5-7-0Status establishedConfidence 97

6091Eagle 1

Season APEX 41.4Event APEX -16.93Rank 24Record 6-6-0Status establishedConfidence 97

Scouting breakdown

Alliance compatibility and predicted ranking points, built from this event's completed matches.

Red · 9673, 288, 5182

/ 100 compat

Projected

125.6 pts

~2.0 RP (district)

Teams: 9673, 288, 5182

Auto

13.9 10%

Teleop

93.4 69%

Endgame

27.4 20%

Strengths

–

Weaknesses

· Thin autonomous coverage

RP bonus probability

Energized: 36%

Supercharged: 3%

Traversal: 2%

Blue · 11435, 5525, 6091

/ 100 compat

Projected

22.4 pts

~0.8 RP (district)

Teams: 11435, 5525, 6091

Auto

0.1 0%

Teleop

22.2 71%

Endgame

8.8 28%

Strengths

–

Weaknesses

· Thin autonomous coverage
· Below-average combined firepower
· Inconsistent match-to-match output

RP bonus probability

Energized: 36%

Supercharged: 3%

Traversal: 2%

Predicted ranking points (district)Red 1.97 · Blue 0.82

Formula

RP = 2·P(win) + tie·P(tie) + Σ P(bonus)

Inputs

Rule setDistrict

Red projected score125.6pts

Blue projected score22.4pts

Red win probability78%

Event bonus sample194alliance-matches

Adjustments

Energized bonusred 36%, blue 35%

Supercharged bonusred 3%, blue 2%

Traversal bonusred 2%, blue 2%

District qualification: 2 RP win, 1 RP each bonus. Awards also feed district points.
Team bonus rates shrink toward the event mean (4-match prior).
Alliance bonus prob = geometric mean of team rates (all three must contribute).

Prediction detail

Predicted margin: 103.2
Score range: 1–147
Upset likelihood: 22%
Data cutoff: 2026-08-15
Model: apex-0.4.0

Match context

Standard match.

Combined score 210 vs event baseline 114.3.

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Red vs Blue

Alliance sums (event-scoped where available)

222Season APEX122.9

13.9Auto0.1

93.4Teleop22.2

27.4Endgame8.8

124Consistency111

Score breakdown

Official phase points (TBA)

Phase	Red	Blue
auto	20	12
teleop	115	17
endgame	35	11
foul	0	0
total	170	40

Result

Final score

170 – 40

Prediction correct · off by 31 pts

Score check across official sources:

agree

Match videos

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