FIM District Ferris State Event presented by Ferris State University

Qualification · Qualification 33

APEX prediction

Predicted winner

Blue alliance

Predicted score

94.89 – 203.14

21%79%

Actual result

Winner

Blue alliance

Final score

107 – 184

Prediction correct · off by 15.6 points

red allianceTotal Season APEX 174 ±13.3

6100MS Mobots

Season APEX 68.9Event APEX 21.31Rank 18Record 6-6-0Status establishedConfidence 97

5183Devil Bots

Season APEX 39.8Event APEX 21.67Rank 30Record 4-8-0Status establishedConfidence 97

8611Cyber Patriots

Season APEX 65.3Event APEX 51.91Rank 16Record 6-6-0Status establishedConfidence 97

blue allianceTotal Season APEX 455.9 ±10.7

7794Eagle Engineers

Season APEX 61.9Event APEX 40.12Rank 17Record 6-6-0Status establishedConfidence 97

9771FPRO

Season APEX 146.8Event APEX 76.11Rank 11Record 7-5-0Status establishedConfidence 100

7160Ludington O-Bots

Season APEX 247.2Event APEX 86.91Rank 3Record 10-2-0Status establishedConfidence 100

Scouting breakdown

Alliance compatibility and predicted ranking points, built from this event's completed matches.

Red · 6100, 5183, 8611

/ 100 compat

Projected

94.9 pts

~0.9 RP (district)

Teams: 6100, 5183, 8611

Auto

24.1 27%

Teleop

39.0 43%

Endgame

26.9 30%

Strengths

· Well-balanced across phases

Weaknesses

· Inconsistent match-to-match output

RP bonus probability

Energized: 41%

Supercharged: 2%

Traversal: 2%

Blue · 7794, 9771, 7160

/ 100 compat

Projected

203.1 pts

~2.2 RP (district)

Teams: 7794, 9771, 7160

Auto

37.9 18%

Teleop

130.5 62%

Endgame

41.0 20%

Strengths

· Elite combined APEX

Weaknesses

· Inconsistent match-to-match output

RP bonus probability

Energized: 41%

Supercharged: 2%

Traversal: 2%

Predicted ranking points (district)Red 0.86 · Blue 2.18

Formula

RP = 2·P(win) + tie·P(tie) + Σ P(bonus)

Inputs

Rule setDistrict

Red projected score94.9pts

Blue projected score203.1pts

Red win probability21%

Event bonus sample194alliance-matches

Adjustments

Energized bonusred 41%, blue 55%

Supercharged bonusred 2%, blue 3%

Traversal bonusred 2%, blue 2%

District qualification: 2 RP win, 1 RP each bonus. Awards also feed district points.
Team bonus rates shrink toward the event mean (4-match prior).
Alliance bonus prob = geometric mean of team rates (all three must contribute).

Prediction detail

Predicted margin: -108.2
Score range: 75–223
Upset likelihood: 21%
Data cutoff: 2026-08-15
Model: apex-0.4.0

Match context

High scoring

Combined score 291 vs event baseline 113.4.

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Red vs Blue

Alliance sums (event-scoped where available)

174Season APEX455.9

24.1Auto37.9

39Teleop130.5

26.9Endgame41

79Consistency126

Score breakdown

Official phase points (TBA)

Phase	Red	Blue
auto	13	43
teleop	56	111
endgame	38	30
foul	0	0
total	107	184

Result

Final score

107 – 184

Prediction correct · off by 15.6 pts

Score check across official sources:

agree

Match videos

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