FIM District Ferris State Event presented by Ferris State University

Qualification · Qualification 32

APEX prediction

Predicted winner

Red alliance

Predicted score

116.39 – 91.69

58%42%

Actual result

Winner

Blue alliance

Final score

47 – 106

Prediction missed · off by 41.9 points

red allianceTotal Season APEX 194.9 ±13.3

5162The Big Red Theory

Season APEX 46.8Event APEX 17.4Rank 19Record 6-6-0Status establishedConfidence 97

9176Greenspire Steel Sturgeons

Season APEX 50.5Event APEX 61.7Rank 21Record 6-6-0Status establishedConfidence 97

4004M.A.R.S. Rovers

Season APEX 97.6Event APEX 37.29Rank 8Record 8-4-0Status establishedConfidence 97

blue allianceTotal Season APEX 267.1 ±11.7

9736Tawas Braves

Season APEX 56.4Event APEX 10.13Rank 33Record 4-8-0Status establishedConfidence 97

5982Merrill's Circuits of Destruction

Season APEX 95.9Event APEX 43.58Rank 7Record 8-4-0Status establishedConfidence 100

1718The Fighting Pi

Season APEX 114.8Event APEX 37.98Rank 2Record 11-1-0Status establishedConfidence 100

Scouting breakdown

Alliance compatibility and predicted ranking points, built from this event's completed matches.

Red · 5162, 9176, 4004

/ 100 compat

Projected

116.4 pts

~1.6 RP (district)

Teams: 5162, 9176, 4004

Auto

24.6 29%

Teleop

41.0 48%

Endgame

19.7 23%

Strengths

· Well-balanced across phases

Weaknesses

· Inconsistent match-to-match output

RP bonus probability

Energized: 44%

Supercharged: 2%

Traversal: 2%

Blue · 9736, 5982, 1718

/ 100 compat

Projected

91.7 pts

~1.4 RP (district)

Teams: 9736, 5982, 1718

Auto

16.2 19%

Teleop

41.4 48%

Endgame

29.2 34%

Strengths

· Reliable endgame stack

Weaknesses

· Inconsistent match-to-match output

RP bonus probability

Energized: 44%

Supercharged: 2%

Traversal: 2%

Predicted ranking points (district)Red 1.63 · Blue 1.37

Formula

RP = 2·P(win) + tie·P(tie) + Σ P(bonus)

Inputs

Rule setDistrict

Red projected score116.4pts

Blue projected score91.7pts

Red win probability58%

Event bonus sample194alliance-matches

Adjustments

Energized bonusred 44%, blue 46%

Supercharged bonusred 2%, blue 4%

Traversal bonusred 2%, blue 2%

District qualification: 2 RP win, 1 RP each bonus. Awards also feed district points.
Team bonus rates shrink toward the event mean (4-match prior).
Alliance bonus prob = geometric mean of team rates (all three must contribute).

Prediction detail

Predicted margin: 24.7
Score range: 71–137
Upset likelihood: 42%
Data cutoff: 2026-08-15
Model: apex-0.4.0

Match context

Standard match.

Combined score 153 vs event baseline 114.6.

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Red vs Blue

Alliance sums (event-scoped where available)

194.9Season APEX267.1

24.6Auto16.2

41Teleop41.4

19.7Endgame29.2

41Consistency83

Score breakdown

Official phase points (TBA)

Phase	Red	Blue
auto	20	25
teleop	19	50
endgame	8	31
foul	0	0
total	47	106

Result

Final score

47 – 106

Prediction missed · off by 41.9 pts

Score check across official sources:

agree

Match videos

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