FIM District Ferris State Event presented by Ferris State University

Qualification · Qualification 31

APEX prediction

Predicted winner

Blue alliance

Predicted score

23.68 – 116.15

24%76%

Actual result

Winner

Blue alliance

Final score

54 – 105

Prediction correct · off by 20.7 points

red allianceTotal Season APEX 159.1 ±12.7

5878The Great Lakers

Season APEX 41.3Event APEX 11.24Rank 25Record 5-7-0Status establishedConfidence 97

10421Coded Dragons

Season APEX 71.2Event APEX 9.34Rank 23Record 5-7-0Status establishedConfidence 97

8286E.A.G.L.E.S. Robotics

Season APEX 46.6Event APEX 3.1Rank 40Record 3-9-0Status establishedConfidence 97

blue allianceTotal Season APEX 188 ±11.1

5213St. Ignace SHIELD

Season APEX 34.8Event APEX -0.43Rank 37Record 3-9-0Status establishedConfidence 97

6642Stingers of Steel

Season APEX 45Event APEX 30.04Rank 29Record 4-8-0Status establishedConfidence 97

244RoboDawgs 3D

Season APEX 108.2Event APEX 86.54Rank 10Record 7-5-0Status establishedConfidence 100

Scouting breakdown

Alliance compatibility and predicted ranking points, built from this event's completed matches.

Red · 5878, 10421, 8286

/ 100 compat

Projected

23.7 pts

~0.8 RP (district)

Teams: 5878, 10421, 8286

Auto

12.5 18%

Teleop

36.2 51%

Endgame

22.2 31%

Strengths

· Reliable endgame stack
· Well-balanced across phases

Weaknesses

· Below-average combined firepower

RP bonus probability

Energized: 27%

Supercharged: 4%

Traversal: 2%

Blue · 5213, 6642, 244

/ 100 compat

Projected

116.2 pts

~1.9 RP (district)

Teams: 5213, 6642, 244

Auto

20.6 20%

Teleop

54.0 53%

Endgame

26.9 27%

Strengths

· Well-balanced across phases

Weaknesses

· Inconsistent match-to-match output

RP bonus probability

Energized: 27%

Supercharged: 4%

Traversal: 2%

Predicted ranking points (district)Red 0.81 · Blue 1.9

Formula

RP = 2·P(win) + tie·P(tie) + Σ P(bonus)

Inputs

Rule setDistrict

Red projected score23.7pts

Blue projected score116.2pts

Red win probability24%

Event bonus sample194alliance-matches

Adjustments

Energized bonusred 27%, blue 34%

Supercharged bonusred 4%, blue 2%

Traversal bonusred 2%, blue 2%

District qualification: 2 RP win, 1 RP each bonus. Awards also feed district points.
Team bonus rates shrink toward the event mean (4-match prior).
Alliance bonus prob = geometric mean of team rates (all three must contribute).

Prediction detail

Predicted margin: -92.5
Score range: 3–137
Upset likelihood: 24%
Data cutoff: 2026-08-15
Model: apex-0.4.0

Match context

Standard match.

Combined score 159 vs event baseline 115.7.

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Red vs Blue

Alliance sums (event-scoped where available)

159.1Season APEX188

12.5Auto20.6

36.2Teleop54

22.2Endgame26.9

169Consistency108

Score breakdown

Official phase points (TBA)

Phase	Red	Blue
auto	23	18
teleop	25	42
endgame	6	45
foul	0	0
total	54	105

Result

Final score

54 – 105

Prediction correct · off by 20.7 pts

Score check across official sources:

agree

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