FIM District Ferris State Event presented by Ferris State University

Qualification · Qualification 30

APEX prediction

Predicted winner

Blue alliance

Predicted score

113.68 – 282.94

11%89%

Actual result

Winner

Blue alliance

Final score

23 – 238

Prediction correct · off by 67.8 points

red allianceTotal Season APEX 143 ±13.9

5247Red Devil Robotics

Season APEX 46.4Event APEX 25.66Rank 27Record 6-6-0Status establishedConfidence 97

7810Eagle Robotics

Season APEX 47Event APEX 46.86Rank 32Record 4-8-0Status establishedConfidence 97

7911Scrap Cat Robotics Team Puma

Season APEX 49.6Event APEX 41.16Rank 39Record 3-9-0Status establishedConfidence 97

blue allianceTotal Season APEX 317.7 ±12.2

6963Blood Sweat and Gears

Season APEX 55.4Event APEX -2.92Rank 12Record 7-5-0Status establishedConfidence 97

7203Cyber Bearcats

Season APEX 15.8Event APEX 42.83Rank 36Record 3-9-0Status establishedConfidence 97

1918Newaygo County GEARS

Season APEX 246.5Event APEX 243.03Rank 1Record 12-0-0Status establishedConfidence 100

Scouting breakdown

Alliance compatibility and predicted ranking points, built from this event's completed matches.

Red · 5247, 7810, 7911

/ 100 compat

Projected

113.7 pts

~0.5 RP (district)

Teams: 5247, 7810, 7911

Auto

15.8 31%

Teleop

23.9 46%

Endgame

11.9 23%

Strengths

· Strong autonomous coverage
· Well-balanced across phases

Weaknesses

· Inconsistent match-to-match output

RP bonus probability

Energized: 24%

Supercharged: 3%

Traversal: 2%

Blue · 6963, 7203, 1918

/ 100 compat

Projected

282.9 pts

~2.3 RP (district)

Teams: 6963, 7203, 1918

Auto

81.3 30%

Teleop

156.0 58%

Endgame

33.9 13%

Strengths

· 1918 anchors offense
· Elite combined APEX

Weaknesses

· Thin endgame coverage
· Inconsistent match-to-match output

RP bonus probability

Energized: 24%

Supercharged: 3%

Traversal: 2%

Predicted ranking points (district)Red 0.51 · Blue 2.33

Formula

RP = 2·P(win) + tie·P(tie) + Σ P(bonus)

Inputs

Rule setDistrict

Red projected score113.7pts

Blue projected score282.9pts

Red win probability11%

Event bonus sample194alliance-matches

Adjustments

Energized bonusred 24%, blue 48%

Supercharged bonusred 3%, blue 5%

Traversal bonusred 2%, blue 2%

District qualification: 2 RP win, 1 RP each bonus. Awards also feed district points.
Team bonus rates shrink toward the event mean (4-match prior).
Alliance bonus prob = geometric mean of team rates (all three must contribute).

Prediction detail

Predicted margin: -169.3
Score range: 93–304
Upset likelihood: 11%
Data cutoff: 2026-08-16
Model: apex-0.4.0

Match context

Standard match.

Combined score 261 vs event baseline 115.2.

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Red vs Blue

Alliance sums (event-scoped where available)

143Season APEX317.7

15.8Auto81.3

23.9Teleop156

11.9Endgame33.9

48Consistency67

Score breakdown

Official phase points (TBA)

Phase	Red	Blue
auto	21	13
teleop	2	162
endgame	0	63
foul	0	0
total	23	238

Result

Final score

23 – 238

Prediction correct · off by 67.8 pts

Score check across official sources:

agree

Match videos

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