FIM District Ferris State Event presented by Ferris State University

Qualification · Qualification 3

APEX prediction

Predicted winner

Blue alliance

Predicted score

125.8 – 194.4

30%70%

Actual result

Winner

Blue alliance

Final score

103 – 165

Prediction correct · off by 26.1 points

red allianceTotal Season APEX 213.8 ±12.1

4004M.A.R.S. Rovers

Season APEX 97.6Event APEX 81.79Rank 8Record 8-4-0Status establishedConfidence 97

6642Stingers of Steel

Season APEX 45Event APEX 12.56Rank 29Record 4-8-0Status establishedConfidence 97

10421Coded Dragons

Season APEX 71.2Event APEX 31.45Rank 23Record 5-7-0Status establishedConfidence 97

blue allianceTotal Season APEX 291.1 ±12.2

6077Wiking Kujon

Season APEX 101.9Event APEX 78.08Rank 20Record 5-7-0Status establishedConfidence 97

7794Eagle Engineers

Season APEX 61.9Event APEX 33.35Rank 17Record 6-6-0Status establishedConfidence 97

288The RoboDawgs

Season APEX 127.3Event APEX 82.97Rank 4Record 10-2-0Status establishedConfidence 100

Scouting breakdown

Alliance compatibility and predicted ranking points, built from this event's completed matches.

Red · 4004, 6642, 10421

/ 100 compat

Projected

125.8 pts

~1.1 RP (district)

Teams: 4004, 6642, 10421

Auto

24.1 19%

Teleop

68.6 55%

Endgame

31.6 25%

Strengths

· Well-balanced across phases

Weaknesses

· Inconsistent match-to-match output

RP bonus probability

Energized: 41%

Supercharged: 3%

Traversal: 2%

Blue · 6077, 7794, 288

/ 100 compat

Projected

194.4 pts

~1.9 RP (district)

Teams: 6077, 7794, 288

Auto

33.0 17%

Teleop

112.6 59%

Endgame

46.8 24%

Strengths

· Elite combined APEX

Weaknesses

· Inconsistent match-to-match output

RP bonus probability

Energized: 41%

Supercharged: 3%

Traversal: 2%

Predicted ranking points (district)Red 1.05 · Blue 1.95

Formula

RP = 2·P(win) + tie·P(tie) + Σ P(bonus)

Inputs

Rule setDistrict

Red projected score125.8pts

Blue projected score194.4pts

Red win probability30%

Event bonus sample194alliance-matches

Adjustments

Energized bonusred 41%, blue 50%

Supercharged bonusred 3%, blue 3%

Traversal bonusred 2%, blue 2%

District qualification: 2 RP win, 1 RP each bonus. Awards also feed district points.
Team bonus rates shrink toward the event mean (4-match prior).
Alliance bonus prob = geometric mean of team rates (all three must contribute).

Prediction detail

Predicted margin: -68.6
Score range: 103–217
Upset likelihood: 30%
Data cutoff: 2026-08-15
Model: apex-0.4.0

Match context

Standard match.

Combined score 268 vs event baseline 127.7.

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Red vs Blue

Alliance sums (event-scoped where available)

213.8Season APEX291.1

24.1Auto33

68.6Teleop112.6

31.6Endgame46.8

38Consistency0

Score breakdown

Official phase points (TBA)

Phase	Red	Blue
auto	10	36
teleop	35	98
endgame	58	31
foul	0	0
total	103	165

Result

Final score

103 – 165

Prediction correct · off by 26.1 pts

Score check across official sources:

agree

Match videos

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