FIM District Ferris State Event presented by Ferris State University

Qualification · Qualification 29

APEX prediction

Predicted winner

Red alliance

Predicted score

98.4 – 93.13

52%48%

Actual result

Winner

Blue alliance

Final score

62 – 71

Prediction missed · off by 29.3 points

red allianceTotal Season APEX 200.9 ±13.3

9721Red Hawk Robotics

Season APEX 30Event APEX 15.54Rank 41Record 3-9-0Status establishedConfidence 97

6077Wiking Kujon

Season APEX 101.9Event APEX 41.93Rank 20Record 5-7-0Status establishedConfidence 97

6005Cardinaltronics

Season APEX 69Event APEX 40.93Rank 14Record 7-5-0Status establishedConfidence 97

blue allianceTotal Season APEX 247 ±12.4

5704Weird & Wired

Season APEX 30.9Event APEX -9.7Rank 28Record 6-6-0Status establishedConfidence 97

3603Cyber Coyotes

Season APEX 181.2Event APEX 89.68Rank 9Record 8-4-0Status establishedConfidence 100

6098bIrobot

Season APEX 34.9Event APEX 13.15Rank 34Record 4-8-0Status establishedConfidence 97

Scouting breakdown

Alliance compatibility and predicted ranking points, built from this event's completed matches.

Red · 9721, 6077, 6005

/ 100 compat

Projected

98.4 pts

~1.4 RP (district)

Teams: 9721, 6077, 6005

Auto

27.2 31%

Teleop

50.1 57%

Endgame

10.4 12%

Strengths

· Strong autonomous coverage

Weaknesses

· Thin endgame coverage
· Inconsistent match-to-match output

RP bonus probability

Energized: 32%

Supercharged: 2%

Traversal: 2%

Blue · 5704, 3603, 6098

/ 100 compat

Projected

93.1 pts

~1.3 RP (district)

Teams: 5704, 3603, 6098

Auto

32.9 52%

Teleop

22.8 36%

Endgame

7.4 12%

Strengths

· Strong autonomous coverage

Weaknesses

· Thin endgame coverage
· Inconsistent match-to-match output

RP bonus probability

Energized: 32%

Supercharged: 2%

Traversal: 2%

Predicted ranking points (district)Red 1.39 · Blue 1.29

Formula

RP = 2·P(win) + tie·P(tie) + Σ P(bonus)

Inputs

Rule setDistrict

Red projected score98.4pts

Blue projected score93.1pts

Red win probability52%

Event bonus sample194alliance-matches

Adjustments

Energized bonusred 32%, blue 28%

Supercharged bonusred 2%, blue 3%

Traversal bonusred 2%, blue 2%

District qualification: 2 RP win, 1 RP each bonus. Awards also feed district points.
Team bonus rates shrink toward the event mean (4-match prior).
Alliance bonus prob = geometric mean of team rates (all three must contribute).

Prediction detail

Predicted margin: 5.3
Score range: 72–119
Upset likelihood: 48%
Data cutoff: 2026-08-16
Model: apex-0.4.0

Match context

Close match

Combined score 133 vs event baseline 117.

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Red vs Blue

Alliance sums (event-scoped where available)

200.9Season APEX247

27.2Auto32.9

50.1Teleop22.8

10.4Endgame7.4

38Consistency46

Score breakdown

Official phase points (TBA)

Phase	Red	Blue
auto	13	14
teleop	23	35
endgame	26	22
foul	0	0
total	62	71

Result

Final score

62 – 71

Prediction missed · off by 29.3 pts

Score check across official sources:

agree

Match videos

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