FIM District Ferris State Event presented by Ferris State University

Qualification · Qualification 27

APEX prediction

Predicted winner

Blue alliance

Predicted score

83.14 – 119.39

39%61%

Actual result

Winner

Red alliance

Final score

152 – 46

Prediction missed · off by 71.1 points

red allianceTotal Season APEX 333.8 ±10.5

9771FPRO

Season APEX 146.8Event APEX 56.13Rank 11Record 7-5-0Status establishedConfidence 100

1718The Fighting Pi

Season APEX 114.8Event APEX 30.9Rank 2Record 11-1-0Status establishedConfidence 100

9673Volt Vespids

Season APEX 72.2Event APEX -3.89Rank 13Record 7-5-0Status establishedConfidence 97

blue allianceTotal Season APEX 144.2 ±13.3

5182Chieftainators

Season APEX 22.5Event APEX 10.81Rank 31Record 5-7-0Status establishedConfidence 97

9176Greenspire Steel Sturgeons

Season APEX 50.5Event APEX 90.04Rank 21Record 6-6-0Status establishedConfidence 97

10421Coded Dragons

Season APEX 71.2Event APEX 18.54Rank 23Record 5-7-0Status establishedConfidence 97

Scouting breakdown

Alliance compatibility and predicted ranking points, built from this event's completed matches.

Red · 9771, 1718, 9673

/ 100 compat

Projected

83.1 pts

~1.3 RP (district)

Teams: 9771, 1718, 9673

Auto

27.6 28%

Teleop

58.1 59%

Endgame

13.1 13%

Strengths

–

Weaknesses

· Thin endgame coverage
· Below-average combined firepower

RP bonus probability

Energized: 48%

Supercharged: 4%

Traversal: 2%

Blue · 5182, 9176, 10421

/ 100 compat

Projected

119.4 pts

~1.6 RP (district)

Teams: 5182, 9176, 10421

Auto

10.7 13%

Teleop

35.6 43%

Endgame

35.9 44%

Strengths

· Reliable endgame stack

Weaknesses

· Thin autonomous coverage
· Inconsistent match-to-match output

RP bonus probability

Energized: 48%

Supercharged: 4%

Traversal: 2%

Predicted ranking points (district)Red 1.31 · Blue 1.56

Formula

RP = 2·P(win) + tie·P(tie) + Σ P(bonus)

Inputs

Rule setDistrict

Red projected score83.1pts

Blue projected score119.4pts

Red win probability39%

Event bonus sample194alliance-matches

Adjustments

Energized bonusred 48%, blue 29%

Supercharged bonusred 4%, blue 3%

Traversal bonusred 2%, blue 2%

District qualification: 2 RP win, 1 RP each bonus. Awards also feed district points.
Team bonus rates shrink toward the event mean (4-match prior).
Alliance bonus prob = geometric mean of team rates (all three must contribute).

Prediction detail

Predicted margin: -36.2
Score range: 62–140
Upset likelihood: 39%
Data cutoff: 2026-08-15
Model: apex-0.4.0

Match context

Standard match.

Combined score 198 vs event baseline 115.7.

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Red vs Blue

Alliance sums (event-scoped where available)

333.8Season APEX144.2

27.6Auto10.7

58.1Teleop35.6

13.1Endgame35.9

160Consistency127

Score breakdown

Official phase points (TBA)

Phase	Red	Blue
auto	22	19
teleop	94	17
endgame	36	10
foul	0	0
total	152	46

Result

Final score

152 – 46

Prediction missed · off by 71.1 pts

Score check across official sources:

agree

Match videos

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