FIM District Ferris State Event presented by Ferris State University

Qualification · Qualification 26

APEX prediction

Predicted winner

Red alliance

Predicted score

104.32 – 80.93

57%43%

Actual result

Winner

Blue alliance

Final score

26 – 81

Prediction missed · off by 39.2 points

red allianceTotal Season APEX 162 ±12.2

5982Merrill's Circuits of Destruction

Season APEX 95.9Event APEX 54.02Rank 7Record 8-4-0Status establishedConfidence 100

5213St. Ignace SHIELD

Season APEX 34.8Event APEX 7.04Rank 37Record 3-9-0Status establishedConfidence 97

11435St. Peter's High School RaiderBots

Season APEX 31.3Event APEX 43.26Rank 35Record 3-9-0Status establishedConfidence 97

blue allianceTotal Season APEX 206 ±12.4

9736Tawas Braves

Season APEX 56.4Event APEX 10.67Rank 33Record 4-8-0Status establishedConfidence 97

6091Eagle 1

Season APEX 41.4Event APEX -12.48Rank 24Record 6-6-0Status establishedConfidence 97

244RoboDawgs 3D

Season APEX 108.2Event APEX 82.74Rank 10Record 7-5-0Status establishedConfidence 100

Scouting breakdown

Alliance compatibility and predicted ranking points, built from this event's completed matches.

Red · 5982, 5213, 11435

/ 100 compat

Projected

104.3 pts

~1.5 RP (district)

Teams: 5982, 5213, 11435

Auto

3.1 3%

Teleop

59.8 59%

Endgame

38.0 38%

Strengths

· Reliable endgame stack

Weaknesses

· Thin autonomous coverage
· Inconsistent match-to-match output

RP bonus probability

Energized: 34%

Supercharged: 3%

Traversal: 2%

Blue · 9736, 6091, 244

/ 100 compat

Projected

80.9 pts

~1.3 RP (district)

Teams: 9736, 6091, 244

Auto

14.4 12%

Teleop

66.1 55%

Endgame

40.6 34%

Strengths

· Reliable endgame stack

Weaknesses

· Thin autonomous coverage
· Below-average combined firepower

RP bonus probability

Energized: 34%

Supercharged: 3%

Traversal: 2%

Predicted ranking points (district)Red 1.53 · Blue 1.25

Formula

RP = 2·P(win) + tie·P(tie) + Σ P(bonus)

Inputs

Rule setDistrict

Red projected score104.3pts

Blue projected score80.9pts

Red win probability57%

Event bonus sample194alliance-matches

Adjustments

Energized bonusred 34%, blue 35%

Supercharged bonusred 3%, blue 2%

Traversal bonusred 2%, blue 2%

District qualification: 2 RP win, 1 RP each bonus. Awards also feed district points.
Team bonus rates shrink toward the event mean (4-match prior).
Alliance bonus prob = geometric mean of team rates (all three must contribute).

Prediction detail

Predicted margin: 23.4
Score range: 60–125
Upset likelihood: 43%
Data cutoff: 2026-08-15
Model: apex-0.4.0

Match context

Standard match.

Combined score 107 vs event baseline 118.2.

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Red vs Blue

Alliance sums (event-scoped where available)

162Season APEX206

3.1Auto14.4

59.8Teleop66.1

38Endgame40.6

66Consistency174

Score breakdown

Official phase points (TBA)

Phase	Red	Blue
auto	10	11
teleop	10	41
endgame	6	29
foul	0	0
total	26	81

Result

Final score

26 – 81

Prediction missed · off by 39.2 pts

Score check across official sources:

agree

Match videos

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