FIM District Ferris State Event presented by Ferris State University

Qualification · Qualification 25

APEX prediction

Predicted winner

Red alliance

Predicted score

319.05 – 39.01

97%3%

Actual result

Winner

Red alliance

Final score

407 – 40

Prediction correct · off by 44.5 points

red allianceTotal Season APEX 489.6 ±11.2

1918Newaygo County GEARS

Season APEX 246.5Event APEX 224.3Rank 1Record 12-0-0Status establishedConfidence 100

3603Cyber Coyotes

Season APEX 181.2Event APEX 70.63Rank 9Record 8-4-0Status establishedConfidence 100

7794Eagle Engineers

Season APEX 61.9Event APEX 24.12Rank 17Record 6-6-0Status establishedConfidence 97

blue allianceTotal Season APEX 145.4 ±13.3

5183Devil Bots

Season APEX 39.8Event APEX 28Rank 30Record 4-8-0Status establishedConfidence 97

6963Blood Sweat and Gears

Season APEX 55.4Event APEX 2.56Rank 12Record 7-5-0Status establishedConfidence 97

5525Alcona Tool Cats

Season APEX 50.2Event APEX 8.45Rank 26Record 5-7-0Status establishedConfidence 97

Scouting breakdown

Alliance compatibility and predicted ranking points, built from this event's completed matches.

Red · 1918, 3603, 7794

/ 100 compat

Projected

319.1 pts

~2.6 RP (district)

Teams: 1918, 3603, 7794

Auto

78.0 25%

Teleop

189.4 62%

Endgame

40.5 13%

Strengths

· 1918 anchors offense
· Elite combined APEX

Weaknesses

· Thin endgame coverage

RP bonus probability

Energized: 51%

Supercharged: 10%

Traversal: 2%

Blue · 5183, 6963, 5525

/ 100 compat

Projected

39 pts

~0.5 RP (district)

Teams: 5183, 6963, 5525

Auto

6.2 11%

Teleop

34.1 61%

Endgame

15.7 28%

Strengths

–

Weaknesses

· Thin autonomous coverage
· Below-average combined firepower

RP bonus probability

Energized: 51%

Supercharged: 10%

Traversal: 2%

Predicted ranking points (district)Red 2.57 · Blue 0.53

Formula

RP = 2·P(win) + tie·P(tie) + Σ P(bonus)

Inputs

Rule setDistrict

Red projected score319.1pts

Blue projected score39pts

Red win probability97%

Event bonus sample194alliance-matches

Adjustments

Energized bonusred 51%, blue 43%

Supercharged bonusred 10%, blue 2%

Traversal bonusred 2%, blue 2%

District qualification: 2 RP win, 1 RP each bonus. Awards also feed district points.
Team bonus rates shrink toward the event mean (4-match prior).
Alliance bonus prob = geometric mean of team rates (all three must contribute).

Prediction detail

Predicted margin: 280
Score range: 19–339
Upset likelihood: 3%
Data cutoff: 2026-08-15
Model: apex-0.4.0

Match context

High scoring

Combined score 447 vs event baseline 113.8.

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Red vs Blue

Alliance sums (event-scoped where available)

489.6Season APEX145.4

78Auto6.2

189.4Teleop34.1

40.5Endgame15.7

155Consistency147

Score breakdown

Official phase points (TBA)

Phase	Red	Blue
auto	117	8
teleop	212	24
endgame	58	8
foul	20	0
total	407	40

Result

Final score

407 – 40

Prediction correct · off by 44.5 pts

Score check across official sources:

agree

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