FIM District Ferris State Event presented by Ferris State University

Qualification · Qualification 24

APEX prediction

Predicted winner

Blue alliance

Predicted score

0 – 196.32

7%93%

Actual result

Winner

Blue alliance

Final score

30 – 173

Prediction correct · off by 26.7 points

red allianceTotal Season APEX 123.9 ±13.3

5704Weird & Wired

Season APEX 30.9Event APEX -23.46Rank 28Record 6-6-0Status establishedConfidence 97

8286E.A.G.L.E.S. Robotics

Season APEX 46.6Event APEX -11.81Rank 40Record 3-9-0Status establishedConfidence 97

5247Red Devil Robotics

Season APEX 46.4Event APEX 21.56Rank 27Record 6-6-0Status establishedConfidence 97

blue allianceTotal Season APEX 289.5 ±11.6

5535Bionic Bison

Season APEX 130.9Event APEX 100.84Rank 5Record 9-3-0Status establishedConfidence 100

4004M.A.R.S. Rovers

Season APEX 97.6Event APEX 35.79Rank 8Record 8-4-0Status establishedConfidence 97

6122Potential Energy

Season APEX 61Event APEX 59.69Rank 22Record 5-7-0Status establishedConfidence 97

Scouting breakdown

Alliance compatibility and predicted ranking points, built from this event's completed matches.

Red · 5704, 8286, 5247

/ 100 compat

Projected

-13.7 pts

~0.4 RP (district)

Teams: 5704, 8286, 5247

Auto

12.9 0%

Teleop

-17.2 62%

Endgame

-23.6 85%

Strengths

· Reliable endgame stack

Weaknesses

· Thin autonomous coverage
· Below-average combined firepower

RP bonus probability

Energized: 20%

Supercharged: 2%

Traversal: 2%

Blue · 5535, 4004, 6122

/ 100 compat

Projected

196.3 pts

~2.4 RP (district)

Teams: 5535, 4004, 6122

Auto

25.4 18%

Teleop

83.7 58%

Endgame

35.5 25%

Strengths

· Elite combined APEX

Weaknesses

· Inconsistent match-to-match output

RP bonus probability

Energized: 20%

Supercharged: 2%

Traversal: 2%

Predicted ranking points (district)Red 0.38 · Blue 2.39

Formula

RP = 2·P(win) + tie·P(tie) + Σ P(bonus)

Inputs

Rule setDistrict

Red projected score-13.7pts

Blue projected score196.3pts

Red win probability7%

Event bonus sample194alliance-matches

Adjustments

Energized bonusred 20%, blue 47%

Supercharged bonusred 2%, blue 4%

Traversal bonusred 2%, blue 2%

District qualification: 2 RP win, 1 RP each bonus. Awards also feed district points.
Team bonus rates shrink toward the event mean (4-match prior).
Alliance bonus prob = geometric mean of team rates (all three must contribute).

Prediction detail

Predicted margin: -196.3
Score range: -21–217
Upset likelihood: 7%
Data cutoff: 2026-08-15
Model: apex-0.4.0

Match context

Standard match.

Combined score 203 vs event baseline 114.4.

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Red vs Blue

Alliance sums (event-scoped where available)

123.9Season APEX289.5

12.9Auto25.4

-17.2Teleop83.7

-23.6Endgame35.5

205Consistency74

Score breakdown

Official phase points (TBA)

Phase	Red	Blue
auto	14	27
teleop	6	116
endgame	10	30
foul	0	0
total	30	173

Result

Final score

30 – 173

Prediction correct · off by 26.7 pts

Score check across official sources:

agree

Match videos

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