FIM District Ferris State Event presented by Ferris State University

Qualification · Qualification 22

APEX prediction

Predicted winner

Red alliance

Predicted score

132.44 – 104.93

58%42%

Actual result

Winner

Red alliance

Final score

152 – 24

Prediction correct · off by 50.2 points

red allianceTotal Season APEX 361.2 ±11.7

6642Stingers of Steel

Season APEX 45Event APEX 26.44Rank 29Record 4-8-0Status establishedConfidence 97

6005Cardinaltronics

Season APEX 69Event APEX 44.84Rank 14Record 7-5-0Status establishedConfidence 97

7160Ludington O-Bots

Season APEX 247.2Event APEX 61.16Rank 3Record 10-2-0Status establishedConfidence 100

blue allianceTotal Season APEX 156.1 ±13.3

9731All Saints Range Precision

Season APEX 37.6Event APEX 8.12Rank 38Record 3-9-0Status establishedConfidence 97

7911Scrap Cat Robotics Team Puma

Season APEX 49.6Event APEX 60.01Rank 39Record 3-9-0Status establishedConfidence 97

6100MS Mobots

Season APEX 68.9Event APEX 36.8Rank 18Record 6-6-0Status establishedConfidence 97

Scouting breakdown

Alliance compatibility and predicted ranking points, built from this event's completed matches.

Red · 6642, 6005, 7160

/ 100 compat

Projected

132.4 pts

~1.7 RP (district)

Teams: 6642, 6005, 7160

Auto

26.1 21%

Teleop

76.8 63%

Endgame

18.7 15%

Strengths

–

Weaknesses

· Inconsistent match-to-match output

RP bonus probability

Energized: 48%

Supercharged: 2%

Traversal: 2%

Blue · 9731, 7911, 6100

/ 100 compat

Projected

104.9 pts

~1.1 RP (district)

Teams: 9731, 7911, 6100

Auto

14.5 27%

Teleop

33.1 61%

Endgame

6.9 13%

Strengths

–

Weaknesses

· Thin endgame coverage
· Inconsistent match-to-match output

RP bonus probability

Energized: 48%

Supercharged: 2%

Traversal: 2%

Predicted ranking points (district)Red 1.69 · Blue 1.15

Formula

RP = 2·P(win) + tie·P(tie) + Σ P(bonus)

Inputs

Rule setDistrict

Red projected score132.4pts

Blue projected score104.9pts

Red win probability58%

Event bonus sample194alliance-matches

Adjustments

Energized bonusred 48%, blue 28%

Supercharged bonusred 2%, blue 2%

Traversal bonusred 2%, blue 2%

District qualification: 2 RP win, 1 RP each bonus. Awards also feed district points.
Team bonus rates shrink toward the event mean (4-match prior).
Alliance bonus prob = geometric mean of team rates (all three must contribute).

Prediction detail

Predicted margin: 27.5
Score range: 84–153
Upset likelihood: 42%
Data cutoff: 2026-08-15
Model: apex-0.4.0

Match context

Standard match.

Combined score 176 vs event baseline 119.2.

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Red vs Blue

Alliance sums (event-scoped where available)

361.2Season APEX156.1

26.1Auto14.5

76.8Teleop33.1

18.7Endgame6.9

139Consistency59

Score breakdown

Official phase points (TBA)

Phase	Red	Blue
auto	40	10
teleop	91	10
endgame	21	4
foul	0	0
total	152	24

Result

Final score

152 – 24

Prediction correct · off by 50.2 pts

Score check across official sources:

agree

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