FIM District Ferris State Event presented by Ferris State University

Qualification · Qualification 21

APEX prediction

Predicted winner

Blue alliance

Predicted score

61.57 – 115.32

34%66%

Actual result

Winner

Red alliance

Final score

119 – 66

Prediction missed · off by 53.4 points

red allianceTotal Season APEX 185 ±12.4

5162The Big Red Theory

Season APEX 46.8Event APEX 9.32Rank 19Record 6-6-0Status establishedConfidence 97

244RoboDawgs 3D

Season APEX 108.2Event APEX 56.61Rank 10Record 7-5-0Status establishedConfidence 100

9721Red Hawk Robotics

Season APEX 30Event APEX -4.36Rank 41Record 3-9-0Status establishedConfidence 97

blue allianceTotal Season APEX 181 ±12.8

6091Eagle 1

Season APEX 41.4Event APEX 1.28Rank 24Record 6-6-0Status establishedConfidence 97

7810Eagle Robotics

Season APEX 47Event APEX 42.31Rank 32Record 4-8-0Status establishedConfidence 97

3618Petoskey Paladins

Season APEX 92.6Event APEX 71.73Rank 6Record 10-2-0Status establishedConfidence 100

Scouting breakdown

Alliance compatibility and predicted ranking points, built from this event's completed matches.

Red · 5162, 244, 9721

/ 100 compat

Projected

61.6 pts

~1.0 RP (district)

Teams: 5162, 244, 9721

Auto

25.4 35%

Teleop

36.5 50%

Endgame

10.5 15%

Strengths

· Strong autonomous coverage

Weaknesses

· Thin endgame coverage
· Below-average combined firepower

RP bonus probability

Energized: 32%

Supercharged: 2%

Traversal: 2%

Blue · 6091, 7810, 3618

/ 100 compat

Projected

115.3 pts

~1.7 RP (district)

Teams: 6091, 7810, 3618

Auto

21.6 20%

Teleop

70.5 65%

Endgame

16.7 15%

Strengths

–

Weaknesses

· Inconsistent match-to-match output

RP bonus probability

Energized: 32%

Supercharged: 2%

Traversal: 2%

Predicted ranking points (district)Red 1.04 · Blue 1.71

Formula

RP = 2·P(win) + tie·P(tie) + Σ P(bonus)

Inputs

Rule setDistrict

Red projected score61.6pts

Blue projected score115.3pts

Red win probability34%

Event bonus sample194alliance-matches

Adjustments

Energized bonusred 32%, blue 33%

Supercharged bonusred 2%, blue 3%

Traversal bonusred 2%, blue 2%

District qualification: 2 RP win, 1 RP each bonus. Awards also feed district points.
Team bonus rates shrink toward the event mean (4-match prior).
Alliance bonus prob = geometric mean of team rates (all three must contribute).

Prediction detail

Predicted margin: -53.7
Score range: 40–137
Upset likelihood: 34%
Data cutoff: 2026-08-15
Model: apex-0.4.0

Match context

Standard match.

Combined score 185 vs event baseline 120.5.

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Red vs Blue

Alliance sums (event-scoped where available)

185Season APEX181

25.4Auto21.6

36.5Teleop70.5

10.5Endgame16.7

69Consistency85

Score breakdown

Official phase points (TBA)

Phase	Red	Blue
auto	19	15
teleop	52	29
endgame	48	22
foul	0	0
total	119	66

Result

Final score

119 – 66

Prediction missed · off by 53.4 pts

Score check across official sources:

agree

Match videos

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