FIM District Ferris State Event presented by Ferris State University

Qualification · Qualification 20

APEX prediction

Predicted winner

Red alliance

Predicted score

52.32 – 21.31

60%40%

Actual result

Winner

Red alliance

Final score

120 – 31

Prediction correct · off by 38.7 points

red allianceTotal Season APEX 351.4 ±10.5

6963Blood Sweat and Gears

Season APEX 55.4Event APEX -21.26Rank 12Record 7-5-0Status establishedConfidence 97

3603Cyber Coyotes

Season APEX 181.2Event APEX 42.08Rank 9Record 8-4-0Status establishedConfidence 100

1718The Fighting Pi

Season APEX 114.8Event APEX 31.5Rank 2Record 11-1-0Status establishedConfidence 100

blue allianceTotal Season APEX 141.9 ±13.3

5183Devil Bots

Season APEX 39.8Event APEX 27.36Rank 30Record 4-8-0Status establishedConfidence 97

5704Weird & Wired

Season APEX 30.9Event APEX -29.98Rank 28Record 6-6-0Status establishedConfidence 97

10421Coded Dragons

Season APEX 71.2Event APEX 23.93Rank 23Record 5-7-0Status establishedConfidence 97

Scouting breakdown

Alliance compatibility and predicted ranking points, built from this event's completed matches.

Red · 6963, 3603, 1718

/ 100 compat

Projected

52.3 pts

~1.7 RP (district)

Teams: 6963, 3603, 1718

Auto

22.6 39%

Teleop

21.9 38%

Endgame

13.7 24%

Strengths

· Strong autonomous coverage

Weaknesses

· Below-average combined firepower

RP bonus probability

Energized: 48%

Supercharged: 4%

Traversal: 2%

Blue · 5183, 5704, 10421

/ 100 compat

Projected

21.3 pts

~1.2 RP (district)

Teams: 5183, 5704, 10421

Auto

5.3 40%

Teleop

-7.0 0%

Endgame

15.1 100%

Strengths

· Strong autonomous coverage
· Reliable endgame stack

Weaknesses

· Below-average combined firepower

RP bonus probability

Energized: 48%

Supercharged: 4%

Traversal: 2%

Predicted ranking points (district)Red 1.73 · Blue 1.17

Formula

RP = 2·P(win) + tie·P(tie) + Σ P(bonus)

Inputs

Rule setDistrict

Red projected score52.3pts

Blue projected score21.3pts

Red win probability60%

Event bonus sample194alliance-matches

Adjustments

Energized bonusred 48%, blue 31%

Supercharged bonusred 4%, blue 3%

Traversal bonusred 2%, blue 2%

District qualification: 2 RP win, 1 RP each bonus. Awards also feed district points.
Team bonus rates shrink toward the event mean (4-match prior).
Alliance bonus prob = geometric mean of team rates (all three must contribute).

Prediction detail

Predicted margin: 31
Score range: -1–74
Upset likelihood: 40%
Data cutoff: 2026-08-15
Model: apex-0.4.0

Match context

Standard match.

Combined score 151 vs event baseline 122.9.

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Red vs Blue

Alliance sums (event-scoped where available)

351.4Season APEX141.9

22.6Auto5.3

21.9Teleop-7

13.7Endgame15.1

0Consistency0

Score breakdown

Official phase points (TBA)

Phase	Red	Blue
auto	37	15
teleop	55	12
endgame	18	4
foul	10	0
total	120	31

Result

Final score

120 – 31

Prediction correct · off by 38.7 pts

Score check across official sources:

agree

Match videos

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